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Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World

Listed author(s):
  • Arnaud Costinot
  • Dave Donaldson
  • Cory Smith

A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level data set that contains information about the productivity--both before and after climate change--of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26 percent reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust. Since the value of output in our 10 crops is equal to 1.8 percent of world GDP, this corresponds to about one-sixth of total crop value.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/684719
Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/684719
Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 124 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 205-248

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/684719
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE/

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  1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
  2. Randhir, Timothy O. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Trade Liberalization As A Vehicle For Adapting To Global Warming," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), October.
  3. Joshua Elliott & Ian Foster & Samuel Kortum & Todd Munson & Fernando Pérez Cervantes & David Weisbach, 2010. "Trade and Carbon Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 465-469, May.
  4. Randhir, Timothy O. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Trade Liberalization as a Vehicle for Adapting to Global Warming," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(02), pages 159-172, October.
  5. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
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