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Carbon Tariffs: An Analysis of the Trade, Welfare and Emission Effects

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  • Mario Larch
  • Joschka Wanner

Abstract

Carbon tariffs are one prominently discussed climate policy. The proponents stress the carbon tariffs’ ability to restore competitiveness, avoid carbon leakage, and reduce world carbon emissions. We analyze the effects of carbon tariffs on trade, welfare, and carbon emissions in a structural gravity model. We find that the introduction of carbon tariffs reduces welfare in most countries and the effect tends to be most pronounced in developing countries. Further, carbon emissions are massively shifted from these countries to industrialized countries and world carbon emissions decrease by 0.83 percent, with a bootstrapped 95% confidence interval of [-0.92, -0.80]. In our two-sector, two-factor gravity model, we are able to decompose the emission changes into scale, composition, and technique effects. While for individual countries composition accounts for 73 percent of the change on average, two thirds of the world reduction are due to the world scale effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner, 2014. "Carbon Tariffs: An Analysis of the Trade, Welfare and Emission Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 4598, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4598
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    3. Lutz Sager, 2021. "Distributional Effects of Environmental Trade Measures," Working Papers gueconwpa~21-21-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    4. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "On the effects of sanctions on trade and welfare: New evidence based on structural gravity and a new database," Kiel Working Papers 2131, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Luisa Kinzius & Alexander Sandkamp & Erdal Yalcin, 2019. "Trade protection and the role of non-tariff barriers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 603-643, November.
    7. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "GEPPML: General equilibrium analysis with PPML," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2750-2782, October.
    8. Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner, 2019. "The Consequences of Unilateral Withdrawals from the Paris Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7804, CESifo.
    9. Nikos Tsakiris & Panos Hatzipanayotou & Michael S. Michael, 2019. "Border tax adjustments and tariff‐tax reforms with consumption pollution," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 21(6), pages 1107-1125, December.
    10. Larch, Mario & Löning, Markus & Wanner, Joschka, 2018. "Can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 118-130.
    11. Imbruno, Michele & Ketterer, Tobias D., 2018. "Energy efficiency gains from importing intermediate inputs: Firm-level evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 117-141.
    12. Wang, Jing & Wan, Guanghua & Wang, Chen, 2019. "Participation in GVCs and CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Michele Imbruno & Tobias Ketterer, 2016. "Energy efficiency gains from trade in intermediate inputs: firm-level evidence from Indonesia," GRI Working Papers 244, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    14. Michael Pfaffermayr, 2020. "Trade creation and trade diversion of economic integration agreements revisited: a constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 985-1024, November.
    15. Ma, Junhai & Hou, Yaming & Yang, Wenhui & Tian, Yi, 2020. "A time-based pricing game in a competitive vehicle market regarding the intervention of carbon emission reduction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Mario Larch & Yoto Yotov, 2017. "On the impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A quantitative analysis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 54-73,74-92.
    17. Marzieh Ronaghi & Michael Reed & Sayed Saghaian, 2020. "The impact of economic factors and governance on greenhouse gas emission," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 22(2), pages 153-172, April.
    18. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2016-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    19. Balogh, Jeremiás Máté, 2021. "A kereskedelmi megállapodások szerepe a klímaváltozásban. Szakirodalmi áttekintés [The role of trade agreements in climate change. Systematic literature review]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 540-563.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon tariffs; climate policy; gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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