IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carbon Tariffs: An Analysis of the Trade, Welfare and Emission Effects


  • Mario Larch
  • Joschka Wanner


Carbon tariffs are one prominently discussed climate policy. The proponents stress the carbon tariffs’ ability to restore competitiveness, avoid carbon leakage, and reduce world carbon emissions. We analyze the effects of carbon tariffs on trade, welfare, and carbon emissions in a structural gravity model. We find that the introduction of carbon tariffs reduces welfare in most countries and the effect tends to be most pronounced in developing countries. Further, carbon emissions are massively shifted from these countries to industrialized countries and world carbon emissions decrease by 0.83 percent, with a bootstrapped 95% confidence interval of [-0.92, -0.80]. In our two-sector, two-factor gravity model, we are able to decompose the emission changes into scale, composition, and technique effects. While for individual countries composition accounts for 73 percent of the change on average, two thirds of the world reduction are due to the world scale effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner, 2014. "Carbon Tariffs: An Analysis of the Trade, Welfare and Emission Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 4598, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4598

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Mario Larch & Markus Löning & Joschka Wanner, 2017. "Can Degrowth Overcome the Leakage Problem of Unilateral Climate Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6633, CESifo.
    2. Michele Imbruno & Tobias Ketterer, 2016. "Energy efficiency gains from trade in intermediate inputs: firm-level evidence from Indonesia," GRI Working Papers 244, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    3. Udo Kreickemeier & Philipp M. Richter, 2019. "Environmental Policy and Firm Selection in the Open Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7725, CESifo.
    4. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    6. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto, 2019. "On the Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: New Evidence Based on Structural Gravity and a New Database," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    7. Kreickemeier, Udo & Richter, Philipp M., 2019. "Environmental policy and firm selection in the open economy," CEPIE Working Papers 04/19, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    8. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2016-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Constantinos Syropoulos & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto V. Yotov, 2019. "On the Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: New Evidence Based on Structural Gravity and a New Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 7728, CESifo.
    10. Nikos Tsakiris & Panos Hatzipanayotou & Michael S. Michael, 2019. "Border tax adjustments and tariff‐tax reforms with consumption pollution," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 21(6), pages 1107-1125, December.

    More about this item


    carbon tariffs; climate policy; gravity model;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4598. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.