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Carbon Tariffs: An Analysis of the Trade, Welfare and Emission Effects

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  • Mario Larch
  • Joschka Wanner

Abstract

Carbon tariffs are one prominently discussed climate policy. The proponents stress the carbon tariffs’ ability to restore competitiveness, avoid carbon leakage, and reduce world carbon emissions. We analyze the effects of carbon tariffs on trade, welfare, and carbon emissions in a structural gravity model. We find that the introduction of carbon tariffs reduces welfare in most countries and the effect tends to be most pronounced in developing countries. Further, carbon emissions are massively shifted from these countries to industrialized countries and world carbon emissions decrease by 0.83 percent, with a bootstrapped 95% confidence interval of [-0.92, -0.80]. In our two-sector, two-factor gravity model, we are able to decompose the emission changes into scale, composition, and technique effects. While for individual countries composition accounts for 73 percent of the change on average, two thirds of the world reduction are due to the world scale effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner, 2014. "Carbon Tariffs: An Analysis of the Trade, Welfare and Emission Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 4598, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4598
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-9, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Nikos Tsakiris & Panos Hatzipanayotou & Michael S. Michael, 2018. "Border Tax Adjustments and Tariff-Tax Reforms with Consumption Pollution," DEOS Working Papers 1811, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    3. Luisa Kinzius & Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp & Erdal Yalcin, 2018. "Trade Protection and the Role of Non-Tariff Barriers," CESifo Working Paper Series 7419, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Michele Imbruno & Tobias Ketterer, 2016. "Energy efficiency gains from trade in intermediate inputs: firm-level evidence from Indonesia," GRI Working Papers 244, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    5. repec:elg:eechap:17028_2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:deveco:v:135:y:2018:i:c:p:117-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    8. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters,in: Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. repec:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:10:p:2750-2782 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:ecolec:v:152:y:2018:i:c:p:118-130 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Larch, Mario & Löning, Markus & Wanner, Joschka, 2018. "Can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 118-130.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon tariffs; climate policy; gravity model;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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