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Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries

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  • Saveyn, Bert
  • Van Regemorter, Denise
  • Ciscar, Juan Carlos

Abstract

This article uses the world GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences of the climate ‘Copenhagen Accord’. The model allows analyzing the macroeconomic costs in terms of GDP, the change in employment, as well as the impacts on production of specific energy-intensive sectors. Various 2020 climate scenarios are evaluated depending on the GHG mitigation pledges. We find that the cost for the developed countries is around 0.5% of GDP in 2020 for the more ambitious pledges, whereas the GDP effects are more heterogeneous across developing countries and Russia, reflecting the different pledges and the assumptions in the reference scenario across these countries. Further, the article explores whether there is a form of double dividend in the EU when the revenues from auctioning or taxation of GHG emissions are used to reduce the social security contributions of employees. We conclude that GDP and employment perform better compared to the free allocation of permits when more sectors are subject to auctioning or GHG taxes and the additional government revenues are used to reduce the cost of labour.

Suggested Citation

  • Saveyn, Bert & Van Regemorter, Denise & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 34-40.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:s1:p:s34-s40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.024
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    1. J. Delbeke & G. Klaassen & T. van Ierland & P. Zapfel, 2010. "The Role of Environmental Economics in Recent Policy Making at the European Commission," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 4(1), pages 24-43, Winter.
    2. Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2003. "Environmental levies and distortionary taxation:: Pigou, taxation and pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 313-322, February.
    3. Ian W. H. Parry, 2003. "Fiscal Interactions and the Case for Carbon Taxes Over Grandfathered Carbon Permits," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 385-399.
    4. Bert Saveyn & Stef Proost, 2008. "Energy-Tax Reform with Vertical Tax Externalities," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 64(1), pages 63-86, March.
    5. Babiker, Mustafa & Gurgel, Angelo & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2009. "Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1341-1354, November.
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    8. Peter Russ & Juan Carlos Ciscar & Bert Saveyn & Antonio Soria & Laszlo Szabo & Tom Van Ierland & Denise Van Regemorter & Rosella Virdis, 2009. "Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models," JRC Working Papers JRC50307, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    9. Antonio Soria & Bert Saveyn, 2010. "Present and Future of Applied Climate Mitigation Policies: The European Union," Chapters,in: Climate Change Policies, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Bohringer, Christoph & Lange, Andreas, 2005. "On the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2041-2055, November.
    11. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline & Mouez Fodha, 2005. "Double Dividend with Involuntary Unemployment: Efficiency and Intergenerational Equity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 31(4), pages 389-403, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paroussos, Leonidas & Fragkiadakis, Kostas & Charalampidis, Ioannis & Tsani, Stella & Capros, Pantelis, 2015. "Macroeconomic scenarios for the south Mediterranean countries: Evidence from general equilibrium model simulation results," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 121-142.
    2. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    3. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Saveyn, Bert & Soria, Antonio & Szabo, Laszlo & Van Regemorter, Denise & Van Ierland, Tom, 2013. "A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 73-81.
    4. Okagawa, Azusa & Masui, Toshihiko & Akashi, Osamu & Hijioka, Yasuaki & Matsumoto, Kenichi & Kainuma, Mikiko, 2012. "Assessment of GHG emission reduction pathways in a society without carbon capture and nuclear technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 391-398.
    5. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2017. "Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-213.
    6. Vicki Duscha & Katja Schumacher & Joachim Schleich & Pierre Buisson, 2014. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, May.
    7. repec:eee:rensus:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:61-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Maisonnave, Hélène & Pycroft, Jonathan & Saveyn, Bert & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2012. "Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 172-179.
    9. Orlov, Anton & Grethe, Harald & McDonald, Scott, 2013. "Carbon taxation in Russia: Prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-140.
    10. Jonathan Pycroft & Salvador Barrios, 2012. "Effective Green Taxation: Method and application to firm-level data," EcoMod2012 3874, EcoMod.
    11. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. repec:eee:tefoso:v:125:y:2017:i:c:p:258-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Salvador Barrios & Jonathan Pycroft & Bert Saveyn, 2013. "The marginal cost of public funds in the EU: the case of labour versus green taxes," Taxation Papers 35, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    14. Saveyn, Bert & Paroussos, Leonidas & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2012. "Economic analysis of a low carbon path to 2050: A case for China, India and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 451-458.
    15. repec:eee:rensus:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:788-799 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copenhagen accord; International climate policy; Green taxation; Competitiveness; Energy intensive industries; Auctioning;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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