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Temperature and Human Capital in the Short and Long Run

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  • Joshua Graff Zivin
  • Solomon M. Hsiang
  • Matthew Neidell

Abstract

We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on cognitive performance and attainment, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26°C (78.8°F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals an imprecisely estimated effect that is significantly smaller than the short-run relationship between climate and human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Graff Zivin & Solomon M. Hsiang & Matthew Neidell, 2018. "Temperature and Human Capital in the Short and Long Run," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 77-105.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/694177
    DOI: 10.1086/694177
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    JEL classification:

    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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