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Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production


  • Marshall Burke

    (Stanford University
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University)

  • Solomon M. Hsiang

    (Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California
    National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Edward Miguel

    (National Bureau of Economic Research
    University of California)


Economic productivity is shown to peak at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and decline at high temperatures, indicating that climate change is expected to lower global incomes more than 20% by 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:527:y:2015:i:7577:d:10.1038_nature15725
    DOI: 10.1038/nature15725

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