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Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review

Author

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  • Dang, Hai Anh H.
  • Hallegatte, Stephane
  • Trinh, Trong Anh

Abstract

We offer an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impacts of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperatures on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analyzing a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys, we find that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. Our findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang, Hai Anh H. & Hallegatte, Stephane & Trinh, Trong Anh, 2024. "Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123884, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123884
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/123884/
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Trinh, Hai Hong & Vo, Diem Thi Hong & Sharma, Gagan Deep, 2025. "How do economies decarbonize growth under finance-energy inequality? Global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Lianxiao Yao & Minghui Jin, 2025. "The effect of climate adaptation policies on productivity: evidence from Chinese cities," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 30(7), pages 1-28, October.
    3. Dang, Hai-Anh & Carletto, Calogero & Jolliffe, Dean, 2025. "Better tracking SDG progress with fewer resources? A call for more innovative data uses," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Li, Mengjie & Bai, Qianwen & Du, Weijian, 2025. "The world is different because of you: Global warming, technological progress and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 202-211.
    5. Triyana,Margaret Maggie & Turk,Andy Jiang & Hu,Yurui & Naoaj,Md Shah, 2024. "Climate Shocks and the Poor : A Review of the Literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10742, The World Bank.
    6. Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna & Nguyen, Minh Cong & Corral Rodas, Paul Andres, 2025. "The Future of Poverty : Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Global Poverty through 2050," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11173, The World Bank.
    7. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen,Minh Cong & Trinh,Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality ? Global Evidence from SubnationalData Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10466, The World Bank.
    8. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Do, Minh N.N. & Nguyen, Cuong Viet, 2025. "The impacts of climate change and air pollution on children’s education outcomes: Evidence from Vietnam," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Headey, Derek D., 2024. "The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages," IFPRI discussion papers 2323, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Armand Fréjuis Akpa & Insa Sané & Sekou Keita, 2025. "Effect of climate vulnerability on agricultural commodities export in sub-Saharan Africa: an heterogeneous effect based on integration zones," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(7), pages 1-24, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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