Whether it’s weather or climate: Temperature and individual deprivation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is widely regarded as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, yet large-scale evidence linking temperature exposure to individual-level welfare remains fragmented. In this paper, we provide a unified assessment of temperature exposure across multiple time horizons by linking daily, monthly, yearly, and long-run average temperature data to 168,585 geo-referenced households in 28 African countries. Our results consistently reveal a statistically robust negative association between higher temperatures and individual living standards, whether arising from short-term weather shocks or long-run climatic conditions. Quantitatively, these effects are modest, particularly once individual characteristics and local geographic conditions are accounted for. Notably, we find no substantive differences between impacts of short-term temperature and long-run climatic effects, suggesting limited past adaptation to sustained heat exposure. The fact that temperature-related welfare losses are differentially stronger among rural and agriculturally engaged households further highlights the persistent vulnerability of climate-sensitive livelihoods. Crucially, however, local infrastructural endowments emerge as an important moderating factor, significantly weakening the association between temperature exposure and individual-level deprivation. This finding points to scope for adaptation through investments in basic infrastructure and service provision.