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Weather and Infant Mortality in Africa

  • Kudamatsu, Masayuki
  • Persson, Torsten
  • Strömberg, David

We estimate how random weather fluctuations affected infant mortality across 28 African countries in the past, combining high-resolution data from retrospective fertility surveys (DHS) and climate-model reanalysis (ERA-40). We find that infants were much more likely to die when exposed in utero to much longer malaria spells than normal in epidemic malaria regions, and to droughts in arid areas, especially when born in the hungry season. Based on these estimates, we predict aggregate infant deaths in Africa, due to extreme weather events and to maternal malaria in epidemic areas for 1981-2000 and 2081-2100.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9222.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9222
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  1. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Working Papers 1010, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," Working Papers 0707, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  3. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7376.
  4. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  5. Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
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