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The mismeasure of weather: Using earth observation data for estimation of socioeconomic outcomes

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  • Josephson, Anna
  • Michler, Jeffrey D.
  • Kilic, Talip
  • Murray, Siobhan

Abstract

The availability of weather data from remotely sensed earth observation (EO) products has reduced the cost to economists of including weather variables in econometric models. Weather variables are common instrumental variables used to predict socioeconomic outcomes and serve as an input into modeling crop productivity in rainfed agriculture. The use of EO data in econometric applications has only recently been met with a critical assessment of the suitability and quality of this data in economics. We document variability in estimates of agricultural productivity in six countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using nine different EO data products. By varying the source of the EO data we demonstrate the magnitude and significance of measurement error. We find that estimates are not robust to the choice of EO data and outcomes are not simply affine transformations of one another. This begs caution on the part of researchers using these data and suggests that robustness checks should include testing alternative sources of EO data.

Suggested Citation

  • Josephson, Anna & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Kilic, Talip & Murray, Siobhan, 2026. "The mismeasure of weather: Using earth observation data for estimation of socioeconomic outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s030438782500104x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103553
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    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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