IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12530.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Weak States: Causes and Consequences of the Sicilian Mafia

Author

Listed:
  • Acemoglu, Daron
  • De Luca, Giacomo
  • De Feo, Giuseppe

Abstract

We document that the spread of the Mafia in Sicily at the end of the 19th century was in part shaped by the rise of socialist Peasant Fasci organizations. In an environment with weak state presence, this socialist threat triggered landholders, estate managers and local politicians to turn to the Mafia to resist and combat peasant demands. We show that the location of the Peasant Fasci is significantly affected by an exceptionally severe drought in 1893, and using information on rainfall, we establish the causal effect of the Peasant Fasci on the location of the Mafia in 1900. We provide extensive evidence that rainfall before and after this critical period has no effect on the spread of the Mafia or various economic and political outcomes. In the second part of the paper, we use the source of variation in the location of the Mafia in 1900 to estimate its medium-term and long-term effects. We find significant and quantitatively large negative impacts of the Mafia on literacy and various public goods in the 1910s and 20s. We also show a sizable impact of the Mafia on political competition, which could be one of the channels via which it affected local economic outcomes. We document negative effects of the Mafia on longer-term outcomes (in the 1960s, 70s and 80s) as well, but these are in general weaker and often only marginally significant. One exception is its persistent and strong impact on political competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Acemoglu, Daron & De Luca, Giacomo & De Feo, Giuseppe, 2017. "Weak States: Causes and Consequences of the Sicilian Mafia," CEPR Discussion Papers 12530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12530
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP12530
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Buonanno & Ruben Durante & Giovanni Prarolo & Paolo Vanin, 2015. "Poor Institutions, Rich Mines: Resource Curse in the Origins of the Sicilian Mafia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 175-202, August.
    2. Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana D. Kugler, 2008. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 191-215, May.
    3. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    4. Giuseppe De Feo & Giacomo Davide De Luca, 2017. "Mafia in the Ballot Box," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 134-167, August.
    5. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay & Elliott Green, 2011. "The Reversal of Fortune Thesis Reconsidered," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 817-831, December.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Camilo García-Jimeno & James A. Robinson, 2015. "State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2364-2409, August.
    7. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2013. "Pre‐Colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 113-152, January.
    8. Oriana Bandiera, 2003. "Land Reform, the Market for Protection, and the Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: Theory and Evidence," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 218-244, April.
    9. Besley, Timothy & Persson, Torsten & Sturm, Daniel, 2010. "Political competition, policy and growth: theory and evidence from the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121718, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    11. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    12. Nicola Mastrorocco & Marco Di Cataldo, 2018. "Organised Crime, Captured Politicians and the Allocation of Public Resources," Trinity Economics Papers tep0420, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    13. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
    14. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    15. Francis DiTraglia & Camilo García-Jimeno, 2016. "A Framework for Eliciting, Incorporating, and Disciplining Identification Beliefs in Linear Models," NBER Working Papers 22621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dimico, Arcangelo & Isopi, Alessia & Olsson, Ola, 2017. "Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: The Market for Lemons," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1083-1115, December.
    17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    18. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "The Logic of Political Violence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(3), pages 1411-1445.
    19. Melissa Dell, 2015. "Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1738-1779, June.
    20. Alberto Alesina & Salvatore Piccolo & Paolo Pinotti, 2019. "Organized Crime, Violence, and Politics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 457-499.
    21. Nicola Gennaioli & Ilia Rainer, 2007. "The modern impact of precolonial centralization in Africa," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 185-234, September.
    22. Ariaster B. Chimeli & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2017. "The Use of Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Mahogany Trade in the Brazilian Amazon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 30-57, October.
    23. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson & Rafael J. Santos, 2013. "The Monopoly Of Violence: Evidence From Colombia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 5-44, January.
    24. Alfredo Del Monte & Luca Pennacchio, 2012. "Agricultural productivity, banditry and criminal organisations in post-unification Italy," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 347-378.
    25. Gianmarco Daniele & Benny Geys, 2015. "Organised Crime, Institutions and Political Quality: Empirical Evidence from Italian Municipalities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 233-255, August.
    26. Leopoldo Fergusson & Juan F. Vargas & Mauricio A. Vela, 2013. "Sunlight Disinfects? Free Media in Weak Democracies," Documentos CEDE 10487, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    27. Daniele, Vittorio & Marani, Ugo, 2011. "Organized crime, the quality of local institutions and FDI in Italy: A panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 132-142, March.
    28. Melissa Dell, 2010. "The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 1863-1903, November.
    29. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson & Daniel M. Sturm, 2010. "Political Competition, Policy and Growth: Theory and Evidence from the US," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1329-1352.
    30. Bonnier, Evelina & Poulsen, Jonas & Rogall, Thorsten & Stryjan, Miri, 2020. "Preparing for genocide: Quasi-experimental evidence from Rwanda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    31. Andreas Madestam & Daniel Shoag & Stan Veuger & David Yanagizawa-Drott, 2013. "Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence from the Tea Party Movement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1633-1685.
    32. Marco Di Cataldo & Nicola Mastrorocco, 2022. "Organized Crime, Captured Politicians, and the Allocation of Public Resources [“Mafiaand Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-Experiment]," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 774-839.
    33. Buonanno, Paolo & Prarolo, Giovanni & Vanin, Paolo, 2016. "Organized crime and electoral outcomes. Evidence from Sicily at the turn of the XXI century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 61-74.
    34. Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo, 2013. "Bushes and Bullets: Illegal Cocaine Markets and Violence in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 11934, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    35. Juan Camilo Castillo, Daniel Mejia, and Pascual Restrepo, 2014. "Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War - Working Paper 356," Working Papers 356, Center for Global Development.
    36. Paolo Pinotti, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Organised Crime: Evidence from Southern Italy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 203-232, August.
    37. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    38. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola Mastrorocco, 2018. "Organised Crime, Captured Politicians and the Allocation of Public Resources," Trinity Economics Papers tep1018, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Marco Di Cataldo & Nicola Mastrorocco, 2022. "Organized Crime, Captured Politicians, and the Allocation of Public Resources [“Mafiaand Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-Experiment]," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 774-839.
    3. Stefania Fontana & Giorgio d’Agostino, 2024. "Anti-mafia policies and public goods in Italy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 493-529, March.
    4. Cavalieri, Marina & Finocchiaro Castro, Massimo & Guccio, Calogero, 2023. "Organised crime and educational outcomes in Southern Italy: An empirical investigation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Marina Cavalieri & Massimo Finocchiaro Castro & Calogero Guccio, 2020. "Does the Fish Rot from the Head? Organised Crime and Educational Outcomes in Southern Italy," Working papers 97, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    6. Federico Cingano & Marco Tonello, 2020. "Law Enforcement, Social Control and Organized Crime: Evidence from Local Government Dismissals in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(2), pages 221-254, July.
    7. Accardo, Pasquale & De Feo, Giuseppe & De Luca, Giacomo, 2023. "With a little help from my friends. Political competition in the shadow of organized crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    8. Baysan, Ceren & Burke, Marshall & González, Felipe & Hsiang, Solomon & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 434-452.
    9. Scognamiglio, Annalisa, 2018. "When the mafia comes to town," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 573-590.
    10. Juan Camilo Castillo & Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 269-286, May.
    11. Boeri, Filippo & Di Cataldo, Marco & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2022. "Localised effects of re-allocated real estate mafia assets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116682, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Caglayan, Mustafa & Flamini, Alessandro & Jahanshahi, Babak, 2021. "Hindering human capital accumulation: A hidden cost of the silent mafia?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 828-845.
    13. Francesca M. Calamunci & Livio Ferrante & Rossana Scebba, 2022. "Closed for mafia: Evidence from the removal of mafia firms on commercial property values," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1487-1511, November.
    14. Campedelli, Gian Maria & Daniele, Gianmarco & Martinangeli, Andrea F.M. & Pinotti, Paolo, 2023. "Organized crime, violence and support for the state," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    15. Baraldi, Anna Laura & Immordino, Giovanni & Stimolo, Marco, 2022. "Self-selecting candidates or compelling voters: How organized crime affects political selection," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Paolo Buonanno & Irene Ferrari & Alessandro Saia, 2023. "ALL IS NOT LOST: Organized Crime and Social Capital Formation," Working Papers 2023: 16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2024.
    17. Gianmarco Daniele & Gemma Dipoppa, 2018. "Doing Business Below the Line: Screening, Mafias and Public Funds," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1898, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Giovanni Bernardo & Irene Brunetti & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2021. "Measuring the presence of organized crime across Italian provinces: a sensitivity analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 31-95, February.
    19. Austin L. Wright, 2016. "Economic Shocks and Rebel," HiCN Working Papers 232, Households in Conflict Network.
    20. Ceren Baysan & Marshall Burke & Felipe González & Solomon Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Economic and Non-Economic Factors in Violence: Evidence from Organized Crime, Suicides and Climate in Mexico," NBER Working Papers 24897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Criminal organizations; Economic development; Mafia; Political competition; Weak states;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12530. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.