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Fertility impact of intense precipitation in rural areas: The role of income expectation shocks

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  • Kou, Zonglai
  • Zhao, Wentian
  • Zhou, Min

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of intense precipitation on rural fertility, expanding the discussion on how natural factors influence human reproduction. Although natural elements such as temperature have been shown to play significant roles in fertility, the effect of precipitation remains unclear. Using household-level data from 1986 to 2008, we find that intense precipitation has a significantly suppressive effect on rural fertility. Mechanism analysis indicates that only intense precipitation during the key months corresponding to the flowering and maturity stages of crops significantly reduces fertility, offering strong empirical support for the income expectation shock mechanism while refuting the biological health deterioration hypothesis. Therefore, cultivating more suitable crops and encouraging the use of advanced agricultural technology and infrastructure may help mitigate this negative effect. These findings provide new insights for addressing the challenge of declining fertility rates in rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Kou, Zonglai & Zhao, Wentian & Zhou, Min, 2025. "Fertility impact of intense precipitation in rural areas: The role of income expectation shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s026499932500166x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107171
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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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