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Modelling consumption and constructing long-term baselines in final demand

Author

Listed:
  • Mun Ho
  • Wolfgang Britz

    (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn)

  • Ruth Delzeit
  • Florian Leblanc

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées)

  • Roson Roberto
  • Franziska Schuenemann
  • Matthias Weitzel

Abstract

Modelling and projecting consumption, investment and government demand by detailed commodities in CGE models poses many data and methodological challenges. We review the state of knowledge of modelling consumption of commodities (price and income elasticities and demographics), as well as the historical trends that we should be able to explain. We then discuss the current approaches taken in CGE models to project the trends in demand at various levels of commodity disaggregation. We examine the pros and cons of the various approaches to adjust parameters over time or using functions of time and suggest a research agenda to improve modelling and projection. We compare projections out to 2050 using LES, CES and AIDADS functions in the same CGE model to illustrate the size of the differences. In addition, we briefly discuss the allocation of total investment and government demand to individual commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roson Roberto & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling consumption and constructing long-term baselines in final demand," Post-Print hal-03200289, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03200289
    DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050103AF
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yaxin & Shan, Yuli & Zheng, Xinzhu & Wang, Can & Guan, Yuru & Yan, Jin & Ruzzenenti, Franco & Hubacek, Klaus, 2023. "Energy price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict jeopardize wellbeing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Wilts, Rienne & Britz, Wolfgang, 2022. "Quantifying SDG indicators for multiple SSPs up to 2050 with a focus on selected low and low-middle income countries and the bio-economy based on CGE analysis," Conference papers 333473, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Freire-González, Jaume & Ho, Mun S., 2022. "Policy strategies to tackle rebound effects: A comparative analysis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 193.
    4. Britz, Wolfgang & Jafari, Yaghoob & Nekhay, Olexandr & Roson, Roberto, 2022. "Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Haddad, Salwa & Escobar, Neus & Bruckner, Martin & Britz, Wolfgang, "undated". "Promoting extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change," Discussion Papers 324710, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    6. Shojaeddini, Ensieh & Schreiber, Andrew & Wolverton, Ann & Marten, Alex, 2024. "Consumer demand and the economy-wide costs of regulation: Modeling households with empirically estimated flexible functional forms," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 28-62, June.
    8. Yilmaz, Sakir Devrim & Ben-Nasr, Sawsen & Mantes, Achilleas & Ben-Khalifa, Nihed & Daghari, Issam, 2025. "Climate change, loss of agricultural output and the macroeconomy: The case of Tunisia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    9. Mukashov, A., 2023. "Parameter uncertainty in policy planning models: Using portfolio management methods to choose optimal policies under world market volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-202.
    10. Bouyssou, Clara G. & Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård & Yu, Wusheng, 2024. "Food for thought: A meta-analysis of animal food demand elasticities across world regions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Jean Chateau & Erwin Corong & Elisa Lanzi & Caitlyn Carrico & Jean Fouré & David Laborde, 2020. "Characterizing Supply-Side Drivers of Structural Change in the Construction of Economic Baseline Projections," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 109-161, June.
    12. Zhang, Qishi & Li, Bo & Liu, Jing-Yu & Deng, Yizhi & Zhang, Runsen & Wu, Wenchao & Geng, Yong, 2024. "Assessing the distributional impacts of ambitious carbon pricing in China's agricultural sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Clements, Kenneth & Mariano, Marc Jim & Verikios, George, 2022. "Expenditure patterns, heterogeneity, and long-term structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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