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Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Foure

    (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales)

  • Angel Aguiar

    (Purdue University [West Lafayette])

  • Ruben Bibas
  • Jean Chateau
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Julien Lefevre

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marian Leimbach

    (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Luis Rey-Los-Santos

    (European Commission [Brussels])

  • Hugo Valin

    (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg])

Abstract

For dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, long-term baseline construction is key and depends on the applied methods and the sources of projections considered. For dynamic CGE models, baseline assumptions and base data are both important determinants of results. This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams on baseline macroeconomic drivers, understood as factor accumulation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We critically review the various methods, identifying state-of-the-art practices and propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models, which is intended to help dynamic CGE modelers build their own baselines.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal," Post-Print hal-03128273, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03128273
    DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050102AF
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    Cited by:

    1. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng, 2022. "GHG emissions, trade balance, and carbon leakage: Insights from modeling thirty-one European decarbonization pathways towards 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    3. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    4. Winchester, Niven & White, Dominic, 2022. "The Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) Model, Version 1.0," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Luyuan Xu & Wei Wang, 2021. "A Quantitative Relationship Analysis of Industry Shifts and Trade Restructuring in ASEAN Based on Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Models," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-12, February.
    6. Khabbazan, Mohammad M. & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2021. "The implication of the Paris targets for the Middle East through different cooperation options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    8. Khabbazan, Mohammad M. & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2021. "The implication of the Paris targets for the Middle East through different cooperation options," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 104.
    9. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    10. Jean Chateau & Erwin Corong & Elisa Lanzi & Caitlyn Carrico & Jean Fouré & David Laborde, 2020. "Characterizing Supply-Side Drivers of Structural Change in the Construction of Economic Baseline Projections," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 109-161, June.
    11. Johannes Ziesmer & Ding Jin & Sneha D Thube & Christian Henning, 2023. "A Dynamic Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1331-1368, April.

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