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System Integration of Wind and Solar Power in Integrated Assessment Models: a Cross-model Evaluation of New Approaches

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  • Pietzcker, Robert C.
  • Ueckerdt, Falko
  • Carrara, Samuel
  • de Boer, Harmen Sytze
  • Després, Jacques
  • Fujimori, Shinichiro
  • Johnson, Nils
  • Kitous, Alban
  • Scholz, Yvonne
  • Sullivan, Patrick
  • Luderer, Gunnar

Abstract

Mitigation-Process Integrated Assessment Models (MP-IAMs) are used to analyze long-term transformation pathways of the energy system required to achieve stringent climate change mitigation targets. Due to their substantial temporal and spatial aggregation, IAMs cannot explicitly represent all detailed challenges of integrating the variable renewable energies (VRE) wind and solar in power systems, but rather rely on parameterized modeling approaches. In the ADVANCE project, six international modeling teams have developed new approaches to improve the representation of power sector dynamics and VRE integration in IAMs. In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the last years’ modeling progress and study the impact of VRE integration modeling on VRE deployment in IAM scenarios. For a comprehensive and transparent qualitative evaluation, we first develop a framework of 18 features of power sector dynamics and VRE integration. We then apply this framework to the newly-developed modeling approaches to derive a detailed map of strengths and limitations of the different approaches. For the quantitative evaluation, we compare the IAMs to the detailed hourly-resolution power sector model REMIX. We find that the new modeling approaches manage to represent a large number of features of the power sector, and the numerical results are in reasonable agreement with those derived from the detailed power sector model. Updating the power sector representation and the cost and resources of wind and solar substantially increased wind and solar shares across models: Under a carbon price of 30$/tCO2 in 2020 (increasing by 5% per year), the model-average cost-minimizing VRE share over the period 2050-2100 is 62% of electricity generation, 24%-points higher than with the old model version.

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  • Pietzcker, Robert C. & Ueckerdt, Falko & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Després, Jacques & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Kitous, Alban & Scholz, Yvonne & Sullivan, Patrick & Ludere, 2017. "System Integration of Wind and Solar Power in Integrated Assessment Models: a Cross-model Evaluation of New Approaches," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 253730, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemmi:253730
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.253730
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/253730/files/NDL2017-007.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Bistline, John E.T. & Blanford, Geoffrey J., 2020. "Value of technology in the U.S. electric power sector: Impacts of full portfolios and technological change on the costs of meeting decarbonization goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Clemens Gerbaulet & Casimir Lorenz, 2017. "dynELMOD: A Dynamic Investment and Dispatch Model for the Future European Electricity Market," Data Documentation 88, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Abdulla Kaya & Denes Csala & Sgouris Sgouridis, 2017. "Constant elasticity of substitution functions for energy modeling in general equilibrium integrated assessment models: a critical review and recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 27-40, November.
    4. McPherson, Madeleine & Johnson, Nils & Strubegger, Manfred, 2018. "The role of electricity storage and hydrogen technologies in enabling global low-carbon energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 649-661.
    5. Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2019. "Uncertainties towards a fossil-free system with high integration of wind energy in long-term planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Scholz, Yvonne & Gils, Hans Christian & Pietzcker, Robert C., 2017. "Application of a high-detail energy system model to derive power sector characteristics at high wind and solar shares," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 568-582.
    7. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Blok, K. & Calvin, K. & Fujimori, S., 2020. "Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Pavičević, Matija & Kavvadias, Konstantinos & Pukšec, Tomislav & Quoilin, Sylvain, 2019. "Comparison of different model formulations for modelling future power systems with high shares of renewables – The Dispa-SET Balkans model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    10. Nissen, Ulrich & Harfst, Nathanael, 2019. "Shortcomings of the traditional “levelized cost of energy” [LCOE] for the determination of grid parity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1009-1016.
    11. Jon Sampedro & Iñaki Arto & Mikel González-Eguino, 2017. "Implications of Switching Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Solar: A Case Study for the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Maïzi, Nadia & Mazauric, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Bouckaert, Stéphanie & Krakowski, Vincent & Li, Xiang & Wang, Pengbo, 2018. "Maximizing intermittency in 100% renewable and reliable power systems: A holistic approach applied to Reunion Island in 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 332-341.
    13. Thakur, Jagruti & Rauner, Sebastian & Darghouth, Naïm R. & Chakraborty, Basab, 2018. "Exploring the impact of increased solar deployment levels on residential electricity bills in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 512-523.
    14. José Miguel Paredes-Parra & Antonio Mateo-Aroca & Guillermo Silvente-Niñirola & María C. Bueso & Ángel Molina-García, 2018. "PV Module Monitoring System Based on Low-Cost Solutions: Wireless Raspberry Application and Assessment," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Qian Zhou & Naota Hanasaki & Shinichiro Fujimori & Yoshimitsu Masaki & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2018. "Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 77-90, March.
    16. Ajay Gambhir & Isabela Butnar & Pei-Hao Li & Pete Smith & Neil Strachan, 2019. "A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Mima, Silvana & Arent, Douglas, 2017. "Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 542-551.
    18. I. Mouratiadou & M. Bevione & D. L. Bijl & L. Drouet & M. Hejazi & S. Mima & M. Pehl & G. Luderer, 2018. "Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 91-106, March.
    19. Zhou, Ella & Cole, Wesley & Frew, Bethany, 2018. "Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 499-511.
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    22. Forouli, Aikaterini & Doukas, Haris & Nikas, Alexandros & Sampedro, Jon & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan, 2019. "Identifying optimal technological portfolios for European power generation towards climate change mitigation: A robust portfolio analysis approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 33-42.
    23. Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Anders Arvesen & Thomas Gibon & Benjamin Bodirsky & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oliver Fricko & Mohamad Hejazi & Florian Humpenöder & Gokul Iyer & Silvana Mima & Ioanna Mour, 2019. "Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies," Post-Print hal-02380468, HAL.
    24. Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & De Cian, Enrica & Pfluger, Benjamin & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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