Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models
Transportation accounts for a substantial share of CO2 emissions, and decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming to below 2°C. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. We test this hypothesis by comparing long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the World from five large-scale energy-economy models with respect to three climate policies. We systematically analyze mitigation levers along the chain of causality from mobility to emissions, and discuss structural differences between mitigation in transport and non-transport sectors. We can confirm the hypothesis that transport is difficult to decarbonize with purely monetary signals when looking at the period before 2070. In the long run, however, the three global models achieve deep transport emission reductions by >90% through the use of advanced vehicle technologies and carbon-free primary energy; especially biomass with CCS plays a crucial role. Compared to the global models, the two partial-equilibrium models are relatively inflexible in their reaction to climate policies. Across all models, transportation mitigation lags behind non-transport mitigation by 10-30 years. The extent to which earlier mitigation is possible strongly depends on implemented technologies and model structure.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.feem.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Azar, Christian & Lindgren, Kristian & Andersson, Bjorn A., 2003. "Global energy scenarios meeting stringent CO2 constraints--cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 961-976, August.
- Bristow, Abigail L. & Tight, Miles & Pridmore, Alison & May, Anthony D., 2008. "Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3427-3435, September.
- Gunnar Luderer & Valentina Bosetti & Michael Jakob & Marian Leimbach & Jan Steckel & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 9-37, September.
- Cuenot, Francois & Fulton, Lew & Staub, John, 2012. "The prospect for modal shifts in passenger transport worldwide and impacts on energy use and CO2," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 98-106.
- Valentina Bosetti & Thomas Longden, 2012.
"Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles,"
2012.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
- Meyer, I. & Leimbach, M. & Jaeger, C.C., 2007. "International passenger transport and climate change: A sector analysis in car demand and associated CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6332-6345, December.
- Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S251-S260.
- Kloess, Maximilian & Müller, Andreas, 2011. "Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5045-5062, September.
- Chen, Wenying & Li, Hualin & Wu, Zongxin, 2010. "Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7106-7120, November.
- Anable, Jillian & Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Eyre, Nick, 2012. "Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 125-138.
- Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
- Schafer, Andreas & Jacoby, Henry D., 2006. "Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 975-985, June.
- Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
- Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
- Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
- Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 1999. "Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 657-679.
- Horne, Matt & Jaccard, Mark & Tiedemann, Ken, 2005. "Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 59-77, January.
- Thomas Longden, 2012. "Deviations in Kilometres Travelled: The Impact of Different Mobility Futures on Energy Use and Climate," Working Papers 2012.71, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.