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Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050

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  • Bristow, Abigail L.
  • Tight, Miles
  • Pridmore, Alison
  • May, Anthony D.

Abstract

The key aim of this paper is to examine strategic pathways to low carbon personal transport in Britain and to compare these with the current trajectory of transport policy. A 2050 baseline was established using trend information, forecasts and best evidence from the literature on response to policy intervention. A range of strategies are tested including: technological development, pricing, public transport and soft measures. We conclude that even dramatic technological advance cannot meet the more stringent targets for carbon reduction in the absence of considerable behavioural change. The most promising combinations of measures involve clear price signals to encourage both a reduction in the use of motorised transport and the development and purchase of more efficient vehicles; decarbonisation of public transport and facilitating measures to enhance access whilst reducing the need for motorised travel.

Suggested Citation

  • Bristow, Abigail L. & Tight, Miles & Pridmore, Alison & May, Anthony D., 2008. "Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3427-3435, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:9:p:3427-3435
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    12. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    13. Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
    14. Perez-Prada, Fiamma & Monzon, Andres, 2017. "Ex-post environmental and traffic assessment of a speed reduction strategy in Madrid's inner ring-road," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 256-268.
    15. Leypoldt, Leo & Dienhart, Christina & Caferoglu, Hüseyin & Salge, Torsten-Oliver & Antons, David, 2024. "The hydrogen field in 2035: A Delphi study forecasting dominant technology bundles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    16. Yang Zhou & Caiyun Qian & Han Xiao & Jiachen Xin & Zixiong Wei & Qing Feng, 2019. "Coupling Research on Land Use and Travel Behaviors Along the Tram Based on Accessibility Measurement—Taking Nanjing Chilin Tram Line 1 as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-33, April.
    17. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Martin, Niall P.D. & Boies, Adam M., 2016. "Quantifying the role of vehicle size, powertrain technology, activity and consumer behaviour on new UK passenger vehicle fleet energy use and emissions under different policy objectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 196-212.
    18. Fan, Ailong & Xiong, Yuqi & Yang, Liu & Zhang, Haiying & He, Yapeng, 2023. "Carbon footprint model and low–carbon pathway of inland shipping based on micro–macro analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    19. Pengfei Zhao & Lingxiang Wei & Dong Pan & Jincheng Yang & Yuchuan Ji, 2023. "Analysis of Key Factors Affecting Low-Carbon Travel Behaviors of Urban Residents in Developing Countries: A Case Study in Zhenjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    20. Marletto, Gerardo, 2014. "Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-178.
    21. Gang Cheng & Shuzhi Zhao & Di Huang, 2018. "Understanding the Effects of Improving Transportation on Pilgrim Travel Behavior: Evidence from the Lhasa, Tibet, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
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