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Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect

Author

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  • Kenneth A. Small

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • Kurt Van Dender

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Abstract

We estimate the rebound effect for motor vehicles, by which improved fuel efficiency causes additional travel, using a pooled cross section of US states for 1966-2001. Our model accounts for endogenous changes in fuel efficiency, distinguishes between autocorrelation and lagged effects, includes a measure of the stringency of fuel-economy standards, and allows the rebound effect to vary with income, urbanization, and the fuel cost of driving. At sample averages of variables, our simultaneous-equations estimates of the short- and long-run rebound effect are 4.5% and 22.2%. But rising real income caused it to diminish substantially over the period, aided by falling fuel prices. With variables at 1997-2001 levels, our estimates are only 2.2% and 10.7%, considerably smaller than values typically assumed for policy analysis. With income at the 1997 – 2001 level and fuel prices at the sample average, the estimates are 3.1% and 15.3%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2006. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," Working Papers 050603, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:050603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(1), pages 25-52, January.
    2. Bonilla, David, 2009. "Fuel demand on UK roads and dieselisation of fuel economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3769-3778, October.
    3. Harrington, Winston & Krupnick, Alan, 2012. "Improving Fuel Economy in Heavy-Duty Vehicles," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-02, Resources for the Future.
    4. Parry, Ian & Strand, Jon, 2012. "International fuel tax assessment: an application to Chile," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 127-144, April.
    5. Rasha Ahmed, 2012. "Promoting energy-efficient products: voluntary or regulatory approaches?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 14(3), pages 303-321, July.
    6. Parry, Ian, 2020. "Increasing carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluating the options," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Liu, Yizao, 2014. "Household demand and willingness to pay for hybrid vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 191-197.
    8. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    9. Parry, Ian W.H. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "How should passenger travel in Mexico City be priced?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 167-182, September.
    10. Parry, Ian W.H., 2012. "Reforming the tax system to promote environmental objectives: An application to Mauritius," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 103-112.
    11. Ian W. H. Parry & Margaret Walls & Winston Harrington, 2007. "Automobile Externalities and Policies," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 373-399, June.
    12. Arturo Antón Sarabia & Fausto Hernández Trillo, 2019. "Internalizando externalidades: El impuesto a la gasolina en Guatemala," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, Enero-Mar.
    13. Parry, Ian W.H. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2012. "Demand side instruments to reduce road transportation externalities in the greater Cairo metropolitan area," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6083, The World Bank.
    14. Parry, Ian W.H. & Evans, David & Oates, Wallace E., 2014. "Are energy efficiency standards justified?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 104-125.
    15. Carol A. Dahl, 2014. "What do we know about gasoline demand elasticities?," Working Papers 2014-11, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    16. Burtraw, Dallas & Sweeney, Richard & Walls, Margaret, 2008. "The Incidence of U.S. Climate Policy: Where You Stand Depends on Where You Sit," RFF Working Paper Series dp-08-28, Resources for the Future.
    17. Miyoshi, Chikage & Fukui, Hideki, 2018. "Measuring the rebound effects in air transport: The impact of jet fuel prices and air carriers’ fuel efficiency improvement of the European airlines," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 71-84.
    18. Wadud, Zia & Graham, Daniel J. & Noland, Robert B., 2009. "Modelling fuel demand for different socio-economic groups," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(12), pages 2740-2749, December.
    19. Bonilla, David & Schmitz, Klaus E. & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2012. "Demand for mini cars and large cars; decay effects, and gasoline demand in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 217-227.
    20. Nasser Al Dossary & Carol A. Dahl, 2009. "Is Global Gasoline Demand Still as Responsive to Price?," Working Papers 2009-01, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    21. Parry, Ian W.H. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Pricing externalities from passenger transportation in Mexico city," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5071, The World Bank.
    22. Shanjun Li & Christopher Timmins & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 113-137, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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