IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/irv/wpaper/050603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth A. Small

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • Kurt Van Dender

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Abstract

We estimate the rebound effect for motor vehicles, by which improved fuel efficiency causes additional travel, using a pooled cross section of US states for 1966-2001. Our model accounts for endogenous changes in fuel efficiency, distinguishes between autocorrelation and lagged effects, includes a measure of the stringency of fuel-economy standards, and allows the rebound effect to vary with income, urbanization, and the fuel cost of driving. At sample averages of variables, our simultaneous-equations estimates of the short- and long-run rebound effect are 4.5% and 22.2%. But rising real income caused it to diminish substantially over the period, aided by falling fuel prices. With variables at 1997-2001 levels, our estimates are only 2.2% and 10.7%, considerably smaller than values typically assumed for policy analysis. With income at the 1997 – 2001 level and fuel prices at the sample average, the estimates are 3.1% and 15.3%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2006. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," Working Papers 050603, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:050603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/workingpapers/2005-06/Small-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    2. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
    3. A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
    4. West, Sarah E., 2004. "Distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 735-757, March.
    5. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    6. Portney, Paul R. & Parry, Ian W.H. & Gruenspecht, Howard K. & Harrington, Winston, 2003. "The Economics of Fuel Economy Standards," Discussion Papers 10863, Resources for the Future.
    7. Ian W. H. Parry & Kenneth A. Small, 2005. "Does Britain or the United States Have the Right Gasoline Tax?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1276-1289, September.
    8. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    9. Blair, Roger D & Kaserman, David L & Tepel, Richard C, 1984. "The Impact of Improved Mileage on Gasoline Consumption," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 209-217, April.
    10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    11. Clifton T Jones, 1993. "Another Look at U.S. Passenger Vehicle Use and the 'Rebound' Effect from Improved Fuel Efficiency," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 99-110.
    12. David L. Greene, 1992. "Vehicle Use and Fuel Economy: How Big is the "Rebound" Effect?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 117-144.
    13. D A Hensher, 1986. "Dimensions of Automobile Demand: An Overview of an Australian Research Project," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 18(10), pages 1339-1374, October.
    14. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, 1998. "The Effects of the Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency Standards in the US," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 1-33, March.
    15. Gerard de Jong & Hugh Gunn, 2001. "Recent Evidence on Car Cost and Time Elasticities of Travel Demand in Europe," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 35(2), pages 137-160, May.
    16. Mannering, Fred L., 1986. "A note on endogenous variables in household vehicle utilization equations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-6, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    2. Anas, Alex & Hiramatsu, Tomoru, 2012. "The effect of the price of gasoline on the urban economy: From route choice to general equilibrium," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 855-873.
    3. Antonio M. Bento & Lawrence H. Goulder & Mark R. Jacobsen & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased US Gasoline Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 667-699, June.
    4. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John & Sommerville, Matt, 2009. "Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1356-1371, April.
    5. Lloro, Alicia & Brownstone, David, 2018. "Vehicle choice and utilization: Improving estimation with partially observed choices and hybrid pairs," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 137-152.
    6. Hymel, Kent M. & Small, Kenneth A. & Dender, Kurt Van, 2010. "Induced demand and rebound effects in road transport," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1220-1241, December.
    7. Lawrence Goulder, 2007. "Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased U.S. Gasoline Taxes," Discussion Papers 07-009, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Moshiri, Saeed & Aliyev, Kamil, 2017. "Rebound effect of efficiency improvement in passenger cars on gasoline consumption in Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 330-341.
    9. Su, Qing, 2011. "Induced motor vehicle travel from improved fuel efficiency and road expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7257-7264.
    10. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2014. "Shedding light on the appropriateness of the (high) gasoline tax level in Germany," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 189-210.
    11. Su, Qing, 2012. "A quantile regression analysis of the rebound effect: Evidence from the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 368-377.
    12. Tingting Wang & Cynthia Chen, 2014. "Impact of fuel price on vehicle miles traveled (VMT): do the poor respond in the same way as the rich?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 91-105, January.
    13. Liu, Weiwei, 2015. "Gasoline taxes or efficiency standards? A heterogeneous household demand analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 54-64.
    14. Tilov, Ivan & Weber, Sylvain, 2023. "Heterogeneity in price elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled: Evidence from micro-level panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    15. Kagawa, Shigemi & Nansai, Keisuke & Kudoh, Yuki, 2009. "Does product lifetime extension increase our income at the expense of energy consumption?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 197-210.
    16. Moshiri, Saeed, 2020. "Consumer responses to gasoline price and non-price policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. West, Jeremy & Hoekstra, Mark & Meer, Jonathan & Puller, Steven L., 2017. "Vehicle miles (not) traveled: Fuel economy requirements, vehicle characteristics, and household driving," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-81.
    18. Greene, David L., 2012. "Rebound 2007: Analysis of U.S. light-duty vehicle travel statistics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 14-28.
    19. Spiller, Elisheba & Stephens, Heather M. & Chen, Yong, 2017. "Understanding the heterogeneous effects of gasoline taxes across income and location," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-90.
    20. Wang, Zhaohua & Lu, Milin, 2014. "An empirical study of direct rebound effect for road freight transport in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 274-281.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon dioxide; Fuel economy; Travel demand; Motor vehicle use; Rebound effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:050603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Melissa Valdez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deucius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.