IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/envaaa/113-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Rebound Effect in Road Transport: A Meta-analysis of Empirical Studies

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros Dimitropoulos

    (OECD)

  • Walid Oueslati

    (OECD)

  • Christina Sintek

    (OECD)

Abstract

The rebound effect is the phenomenon underlying the disproportionality between energy efficiency improvements and observed energy savings. This paper presents a meta-analysis of 76 primary studies and 1138 estimates of the direct rebound effect in road transport to synthesise past work and inform ongoing discussions about the determinants and magnitude of the rebound effect. The magnitude of rebound effect estimates varies with the time horizon considered. On average, the direct rebound effect is around 12% in the short run and 32% in the long run. Indirect and macroeconomic effects would come on top of these estimates. Heterogeneity in rebound effect estimates can mainly be explained by variation in the time horizon considered, the elasticity measure used and the econometric approach employed in primary studies, and by macro-level economic factors, such as real income and gasoline prices. In addition to identifying the factors responsible for the variation in rebound effect estimates, the meta-regression model developed in this paper can serve as a relevant tool to assist policy analysis in contexts where rebound effect estimates are missing. L'effet de rebond est un phénomène qui sous-tend la disproportionnalité entre les améliorations de l'efficacité énergétique et les économies d'énergie observées. Ce papier présente une méta-analyse de 76 études primaires et 1138 estimations de l'effet de rebond direct dans le transport routier pour synthétiser les travaux passés et informer les discussions en cours sur les déterminants et l'ampleur de l'effet de rebond. L'ampleur des estimations de l'effet de rebond varie selon l'horizon temporel considéré. En moyenne, l'effet de rebond est d'environ 12% à court terme et 32% à long terme. Les effets indirects et macroéconomiques viendront s'ajouter à ces estimations. L'hétérogénéité des estimations de l'effet de rebond s'explique principalement par la variation de l'horizon temporel considéré, la mesure d'élasticité utilisée et l'approche économétrique déployée dans les études primaires, ainsi que par des facteurs macroéconomiques tels que le revenu réel et les prix de l'essence. En plus de l'identification des facteurs responsables de la variation des estimations des effets de rebond, la méta-régression, développée dans ce papier, fournit un outil pertinent pour analyser les politiques en vigueurs dans les contextes où les estimations de l'effet rebond sont manquantes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros Dimitropoulos & Walid Oueslati & Christina Sintek, 2016. "The Rebound Effect in Road Transport: A Meta-analysis of Empirical Studies," OECD Environment Working Papers 113, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:113-en
    DOI: 10.1787/8516ab3a-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/8516ab3a-en
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    2. Biying Yu & Junyi Zhang & Akimasa Fujiwara, 2016. "Who rebounds in the private transport sector? A comparative analysis between Beijing and Tokyo," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 43(3), pages 561-579, May.
    3. Joshua Linn, 2016. "The Rebound Effect for Passenger Vehicles," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. T. D. Stanley & Stephen B. Jarrell, 2005. "Meta-Regression Analysis: A Quantitative Method of Literature Surveys," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 299-308, July.
    5. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-52.
    6. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
    7. Gillingham, Kenneth, 2014. "Identifying the elasticity of driving: Evidence from a gasoline price shock in California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 13-24.
    8. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    9. David L. Greene & James R. Kahn & Robert C. Gibson, 1999. "Fuel Economy Rebound Effect for U.S. Household Vehicles," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-31.
    10. Puller, Steven L. & Greening, Lorna A., 1999. "Household adjustment to gasoline price change: an analysis using 9 years of US survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-52, February.
    11. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John, 2008. "The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 636-649, April.
    12. Antonio M. Bento & Lawrence H. Goulder & Mark R. Jacobsen & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased US Gasoline Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 667-699, June.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0032 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Dillon, Harya S. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Boarnet, Marlon G., 2015. "The impact of urban form and gasoline prices on vehicle usage: Evidence from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    15. Kenneth Gillingham & David Rapson & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 68-88.
    16. Carlena Cochi Ficano & Patrick Thompson, 2014. "Estimating Rebound Effects in Personal Automotive Transport: Gas Price and the Presence of Hybrids," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 59(2), pages 167-175, November.
    17. Philippe Barla & Bernard Lamonde & Luis Miranda-Moreno & Nathalie Boucher, 2009. "Traveled distance, stock and fuel efficiency of private vehicles in Canada: price elasticities and rebound effect," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 389-402, July.
    18. Havranek, Tomas & Kokes, Ondrej, 2015. "Income elasticity of gasoline demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 77-86.
    19. Su, Qing, 2012. "A quantile regression analysis of the rebound effect: Evidence from the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 368-377.
    20. Stapleton, Lee & Sorrell, Steve & Schwanen, Tim, 2016. "Estimating direct rebound effects for personal automotive travel in Great Britain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 313-325.
    21. Rentziou, Aikaterini & Gkritza, Konstantina & Souleyrette, Reginald R., 2012. "VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 487-500.
    22. Frondel, Manuel & Peters, Jörg & Vance, Colin, 2007. "Identifying the Rebound: Theoretical Issues and Empirical Evidence from a German Household Panel," RWI Discussion Papers 57, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    23. Shanjun Li & Joshua Linn & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 302-342, November.
    24. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    25. A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
    26. Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2012. "Heterogeneity in the rebound effect: Further evidence for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 461-467.
    27. Tingting Wang & Cynthia Chen, 2014. "Impact of fuel price on vehicle miles traveled (VMT): do the poor respond in the same way as the rich?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 91-105, January.
    28. Su, Qing, 2011. "Induced motor vehicle travel from improved fuel efficiency and road expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7257-7264.
    29. Hansen, Mark & Huang, Yuanlin, 1997. "Road supply and traffic in California urban areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 205-218, May.
    30. Steren, Aviv & Rubin, Ofir D. & Rosenzweig, Stav, 2016. "Assessing the rebound effect using a natural experiment setting: Evidence from the private transportation sector in Israel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 41-49.
    31. Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2009. "Do High Oil Prices Matter? Evidence on the Mobility Behavior of German Households," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 81-94, May.
    32. Gillingham, Kenneth & Jenn, Alan & Azevedo, Inês M.L., 2015. "Heterogeneity in the response to gasoline prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and implications for the rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 41-52.
    33. Christopher R. Knittel & Ryan Sandler, 2011. "Carbon Prices and Automobile Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Extensive and Intensive Margins," NBER Chapters, in: The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy, pages 287-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Hymel, Kent M. & Small, Kenneth A., 2015. "The rebound effect for automobile travel: Asymmetric response to price changes and novel features of the 2000s," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 93-103.
    35. Parry, Ian W.H. & Evans, David & Oates, Wallace E., 2014. "Are energy efficiency standards justified?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 104-125.
    36. Dermot Gately, 1990. "The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor Fuel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 59-74.
    37. Emmanuel Kemel & Roger Collet & Laurent Hivert, 2011. "Evidence for an endogenous rebound effect impacting long-run car use elasticity to fuel price," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2777-2786.
    38. Xavier D'Haultfœuille & Pauline Givord & Xavier Boutin, 2014. "The Environmental Effect of Green Taxation: The Case of the French Bonus/Malus," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(578), pages 444-480, August.
    39. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2012. "The role of efficiency improvements vs. price effects for modeling passenger car transport demand and energy demand—Lessons from European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-46.
    40. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    41. Odeck, James & Johansen, Kjell, 2016. "Elasticities of fuel and traffic demand and the direct rebound effects: An econometric estimation in the case of Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-13.
    42. Matiaske, Wenzel & Menges, Roland & Spiess, Martin, 2012. "Modifying the rebound: It depends! Explaining mobility behavior on the basis of the German socio-economic panel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 29-35.
    43. Hymel, Kent M. & Small, Kenneth A. & Dender, Kurt Van, 2010. "Induced demand and rebound effects in road transport," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1220-1241, December.
    44. Chugh, Randy & Cropper, Maureen, 2017. "The welfare effects of fuel conservation policies in a dual-fuel car market: Evidence from India," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 244-261.
    45. Jong, Gerard De, 1996. "A disaggregate model system of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 263-276, August.
    46. William C. Wheaton, 1982. "The Long-Run Structure of Transportation and Gasoline Demand," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 439-454, Autumn.
    47. Greene, David L., 2012. "Rebound 2007: Analysis of U.S. light-duty vehicle travel statistics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 14-28.
    48. J. Daniel Khazzoom, 1980. "Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 21-40.
    49. Clifton T Jones, 1993. "Another Look at U.S. Passenger Vehicle Use and the 'Rebound' Effect from Improved Fuel Efficiency," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 99-110.
    50. David L. Greene, 1992. "Vehicle Use and Fuel Economy: How Big is the "Rebound" Effect?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 117-144.
    51. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1998. "The Effects of the Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency Standards in the US," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 1-33, March.
    52. Manuel Frondel & Jorg Peters & Colin Vance, 2008. "Identifying the Rebound: Evidence from a German Household Panel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 145-164.
    53. Ajanovic, Amela & Schipper, Lee & Haas, Reinhard, 2012. "The impact of more efficient but larger new passenger cars on energy consumption in EU-15 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 346-355.
    54. Jon Nelson & Peter Kennedy, 2009. "The Use (and Abuse) of Meta-Analysis in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics: An Assessment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 345-377, March.
    55. Robert Noland & William Cowart, 2000. "Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 363-390, December.
    56. Concas, Sisinnio, 2012. "Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel," MPRA Paper 40757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2012.
    57. Ian W. H. Parry & Margaret Walls & Winston Harrington, 2007. "Automobile Externalities and Policies," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 373-399, June.
    58. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    59. Liu, Boying & Richard Shumway, C., 2016. "Substitution elasticities between GHG-polluting and nonpolluting inputs in agricultural production: A meta-regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 123-132.
    60. Fred Mannering & Clifford Winston, 1985. "A Dynamic Empirical Analysis of Household Vehicle Ownership and Utilization," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 215-236, Summer.
    61. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John & Sommerville, Matt, 2009. "Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1356-1371, April.
    62. Chugh, Randy & Cropper, Maureen, 2014. "The Welfare Effects of Fuel Conservation Policies in the Indian Car Market," Discussion Papers dp-14-33, Resources For the Future.
    63. Ye Feng & Don Fullerton & Li Gan, 2013. "Vehicle choices, miles driven, and pollution policies," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 4-29, August.
    64. Jonathan Haughton & Soumodip Sarkar, 1996. "Gasoline Tax as a Corrective Tax: Estimates for the United States, 1970-1991," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 103-126.
    65. Dargay, Joyce, 2007. "The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 949-960, December.
    66. De Borger, Bruno & Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2016. "Measuring the rebound effect with micro data: A first difference approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-17.
    67. Mannering, Fred L., 1986. "A note on endogenous variables in household vehicle utilization equations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-6, February.
    68. Alain Pirotte & Jean-Loup Madre, 2012. "Déterminants du trafic des véhicules légers et élasticités : une approche spatiale sur données régionales françaises," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 457(1), pages 141-159.
    69. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A., 2012. "Induced road traffic in Spanish regions: A dynamic panel data model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 435-445.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. L. (Lisa B.) Ryan & Andrew J. Kelly & Ivan Petrov & Yulu Guo & Sarah La Monaca, 2018. "An Assessment of the Social Costs and Benefits of Vehicle Tax Reform in Ireland," Open Access publications 10197/9906, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Dütschke, Elisabeth & Frondel, Manuel & Schleich, Joachim & Vance, Colin, 2018. "Moral licensing: Another source of rebound?," Ruhr Economic Papers 747, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. L. (Lisa B.) Ryan & Andrew J. Kelly & Ivan Petrov & Yulu Guo & Sarah La Monaca, 2018. "An Assessment of the Social Costs and Benefits of Vehicle Tax Reform in Ireland," Open Access publications COM/ENV/EPOC/CTPA/CFA(201, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. Jeremy van Dijk & Mehdi Farsi & Sylvain Weber, 2020. "Commitments and sunk costs in private mobility: A study of Swiss households facing green transport choices," IRENE Working Papers 20-04, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Yoo, Sunbin & Koh, Kyung Woong & Yoshida, Yoshikuni & Wakamori, Naoki, 2019. "Revisiting Jevons's paradox of energy rebound: Policy implications and empirical evidence in consumer-oriented financial incentives from the Japanese automobile market, 2006–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Goetzke, Frank & Vance, Colin, 2018. "Is gasoline price elasticity in the United States increasing? Evidence from the 2009 and 2017 national household travel surveys," Ruhr Economic Papers 765, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fuel efficiency; gasoline price; meta-analysis; Rebound effect; road transport;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:113-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/enoecfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.