IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v46y2012i3p560-575.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA

Author

Listed:
  • Hickman, Robin
  • Saxena, Sharad
  • Banister, David
  • Ashiru, Olu

Abstract

Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO2 emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO2 emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO2 transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term – incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) – to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:3:p:560-575
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2011.11.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856411001753
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greene, David L., 1993. "Transportation and energy: The global environmental challege," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 163-166, May.
    2. Niemeier, D. & Gould, Gregory & Karner, Alex & Hixson, Mark & Bachmann, Brooke & Okma, Carrie & Lang, Ziv & Heres Del Valle, David, 2008. "Rethinking downstream regulation: California's opportunity to engage households in reducing greenhouse gases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3436-3447, September.
    3. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.
    4. Robinson, John Bridger, 1982. "Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 337-344, December.
    5. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    6. Bristow, Abigail L. & Tight, Miles & Pridmore, Alison & May, Anthony D., 2008. "Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3427-3435, September.
    7. Schwanen, Tim & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2005. "What if You Live in the Wrong Neighborhood? The Impact of Residential Neighborhood Type Dissonance on Distance Traveled," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5hh713d6, University of California Transportation Center.
    8. Akerman, Jonas & Hojer, Mattias, 2006. "How much transport can the climate stand?--Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1944-1957, September.
    9. Hickman, Robin & Banister, David, 2007. "Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 377-387, September.
    10. Boarnet, Marlon G., 2010. "Planning, climate change, and transportation: Thoughts on policy analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 587-595, October.
    11. Dodgson, JS & Spackman, M & Pearman, A & Phillips, LD, 2009. "Multi-criteria analysis: a manual," Economic History Working Papers 12761, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    12. Hickman, Robin & Ashiru, Olu & Banister, David, 2010. "Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 110-125, March.
    13. Handy, Susan & Cao, Xinyu & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2005. "Correlation or causality between the built environment and travel behavior? Evidence from Northern California," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5b76c5kg, University of California Transportation Center.
    14. Macharis, Cathy & De Witte, Astrid & Turcksin, Laurence, 2010. "The Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) application in the Flemish long-term decision making process on mobility and logistics," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 303-311, September.
    15. Stanley, John K. & Hensher, David A. & Loader, Chris, 2011. "Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1020-1030.
    16. Yang, Christopher & McCollum, David L & McCarthy, Ryan & Leighty, Wayne, 2009. "Meeting an 80% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation by 2050: A Case Study in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2ns1q98f, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Schwanen, Tim & Banister, David & Anable, Jillian, 2011. "Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: A critical review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 993-1006.
    18. Schipper, Lee & Meyers, Stephen, 1993. "Using scenarios to explore future energy demand in industrialized countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 264-275, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grischkat, Sylvie & Hunecke, Marcel & Böhler, Susanne & Haustein, Sonja, 2014. "Potential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the use of mobility services," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 295-303.
    2. Jones, Steven & Tefe, Moses & Appiah-Opoku, Seth, 2013. "Proposed framework for sustainability screening of urban transport projects in developing countries: A case study of Accra, Ghana," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 21-34.
    3. repec:eee:trapol:v:58:y:2017:i:c:p:19-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Scarpellini, S. & Valero, A. & Llera, E. & Aranda, A., 2013. "Multicriteria analysis for the assessment of energy innovations in the transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 160-168.
    5. Macharis, Cathy & Bernardini, Annalia, 2015. "Reviewing the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the evaluation of transport projects: Time for a multi-actor approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 177-186.
    6. Marletto, Gerardo, 2014. "Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-178.
    7. Marsden, Greg & Docherty, Iain, 2013. "Insights on disruptions as opportunities for transport policy change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 46-55.
    8. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    9. Levi Vermote & Cathy Macharis & Koen Putman, 2013. "A Road Network for Freight Transport in Flanders: Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Assessment of Alternative Ring Ways," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(10), pages 1-25, September.
    10. Nogués, Soledad & González-González, Esther, 2014. "Multi-criteria impacts assessment for ranking highway projects in Northwest Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 80-91.
    11. Yang, Zhao & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Grembek, Offer, 2016. "Combining traffic efficiency and traffic safety in countermeasure selection to improve pedestrian safety at two-way stop controlled intersections," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 286-301.
    12. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2017:i:1:p:61-:d:124697 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    14. Minaei, Negin, 2014. "Do modes of transportation and GPS affect cognitive maps of Londoners?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 162-180.
    15. Lyons, Glenn & Davidson, Cody, 2016. "Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-116.
    16. Zanni, Alberto M & Goulden, Murray & Ryley, Tim & Dingwall, Robert, 2017. "Improving scenario methods in infrastructure planning: A case study of long distance travel and mobility in the UK under extreme weather uncertainty and a changing climate," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 180-197.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:3:p:560-575. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.