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Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London


  • Hickman, Robin
  • Ashiru, Olu
  • Banister, David


Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the VIBAT London study ( which considers the role of the transport sector in reducing CO2 emissions in London. The analysis develops a transport and carbon simulation model (TC-SIM) for London. Within this, users are able to consider the implementation of a series of potential policy packages--low emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimes, public transport, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long distance travel substitution, freight transport and international air. They can select variable levels of application to help achieve headline CO2 emission reduction targets. The roles of carbon rationing and oil prices are also considered. TC-SIM can be played in different user modes: as 'free riders', 'techno-optimists', 'enviro-optimists', 'complacent car addicts' and other typical travel market segments, including a 'free role'. Game playing or scenario testing such as this helps to highlight perceived levels of homogeneity of views within certain cohorts, the development of entrenched positions and the likely success in achieving objectives. The paper develops various policy packages, scenarios and pathways aimed at reducing transport CO2 emissions. It argues that strategic CO2 emission reduction targets are very ambitious relative to current progress, and that we need to act more effectively across a wide range of policy mechanisms, with a 'high intensity application' of many of the options, to get near to achieving these targets. A critical issue here will be in communicating and gaining greater 'ownership' of future lifestyle choices with stakeholders and the public, and participation tools such as TC-SIM could become increasingly important in this area.

Suggested Citation

  • Hickman, Robin & Ashiru, Olu & Banister, David, 2010. "Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 110-125, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:110-125

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Di Lucia, Lorenzo & Nilsson, Lars J., 2007. "Transport biofuels in the European Union: The state of play," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 533-543, November.
    2. Shiftan, Yoram & Outwater, Maren L. & Zhou, Yushuang, 2008. "Transit market research using structural equation modeling and attitudinal market segmentation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 186-195, May.
    3. Hickman, Robin & Banister, David, 2007. "Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 377-387, September.
    4. David Banister & Robin Hickman, 2009. "Techno-optimism: progress towards CO 2 reduction targets in transport: a UK and London perspective," International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 24-47.
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    1. de Luca, Stefano, 2014. "Public engagement in strategic transportation planning: An analytic hierarchy process based approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-124.
    2. Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed & Jaber, Jamal & Al-Hinti, Ismael & Abdallat, Yousef, 2013. "Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 129-138.
    3. Silverio HERNÁNDEZ-MORENO & José Antonio HERNÁNDEZ-MORENO & Bianca G. ALCARAZ-VARGAS, 2016. "Regulatory Framework About Climate Change Due To Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Mexican Cities: Urban-Architectural Approach," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(2), pages 39-53, May.
    4. Mustapa, Siti Indati & Bekhet, Hussain Ali, 2016. "Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 171-183.
    5. Focas, Caralampo, 2016. "Travel behaviour and CO2 emissions in urban and exurban London and New York," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-91.
    6. Siti Indati Mustapa & Hussain Ali Bekhet, 2015. "Investigating Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions in Malaysian Road Transport Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1073-1083.
    7. Rattanachot, Wit & Wang, Yuhong & Chong, Dan & Suwansawas, Suchatvee, 2015. "Adaptation strategies of transport infrastructures to global climate change," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 159-166.
    8. Dickinson, Janet E. & Cherrett, Tom & Hibbert, Julia F. & Winstanley, Chris & Shingleton, Duncan & Davies, Nigel & Norgate, Sarah & Speed, Chris, 2015. "Fundamental challenges in designing a collaborative travel app," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 28-36.
    9. Eliasson, Jonas & Proost, Stef, 2015. "Is sustainable transport policy sustainable?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 92-100.
    10. Shengyuan Zhang & Jimin Zhao & Albert Park, 2016. "Travel Behavior, Energy Use, and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Shenzhen, China," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2016-35, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Jun 2016.
    11. Kopnina, Helen, 2011. "Kids and cars: Environmental attitudes in children," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 573-578, August.
    12. Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
    13. Taeihagh, Araz & Bañares-Alcántara, René & Givoni, Moshe, 2014. "A virtual environment for the formulation of policy packages," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-68.
    14. Pengjun Zhao & Ralph Chapman & Edward Randal & Philippa Howden-Chapman, 2013. "Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(7), pages 1-22, July.
    15. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2017:i:1:p:28-:d:124022 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:6:p:791-:d:101015 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Banister, David & Hickman, Robin, 2013. "Transport futures: Thinking the unthinkable," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 283-293.
    18. repec:eee:trapol:v:61:y:2018:i:c:p:36-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Cools, Mario & Brijs, Kris & Tormans, Hans & Moons, Elke & Janssens, Davy & Wets, Geert, 2011. "The socio-cognitive links between road pricing acceptability and changes in travel-behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 779-788, October.
    20. repec:eee:transa:v:109:y:2018:i:c:p:76-88 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Liu, Xue & Ma, Shoufeng & Tian, Junfang & Jia, Ning & Li, Geng, 2015. "A system dynamics approach to scenario analysis for urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 253-270.
    22. Solaymani, Saeed & Kardooni, Roozbeh & Yusoff, Sumiani Binti & Kari, Fatimah, 2015. "The impacts of climate change policies on the transportation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 719-728.
    23. repec:eee:trapol:v:61:y:2018:i:c:p:60-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Nygrén, Nina A. & Lyytimäki, Jari & Tapio, Petri, 2012. "A small step toward environmentally sustainable transport? The media debate over the Finnish carbon dioxide-based car tax reform," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 159-167.


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