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Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050

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  • Kloess, Maximilian
  • Müller, Andreas

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of policy, fuel prices and technological progress on the Austrian passenger car fleet in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse these effects a simulation model is used. We model the car fleet from a bottom-up perspective, with a detailed coverage of vehicle specifications and propulsion technologies. The model focuses on the technological trend toward electrified propulsion systems and their potential effects on the fleet's energy consumption and GHG emissions. To represent the impact of prices and income on the development of the fleet, we combine the fleet model with top-down demand models. We developed two scenarios for the time frame 2010-2050, using two different sets of assumptions for regulatory development and conditions of increasing fossil fuel prices and continuous technological progress in vehicle propulsion technologies. The results indicate that material cuts in energy consumption and GHG emissions can be achieved with changes to the political framework for passenger cars. Appropriate taxation of fuels and cars can stabilise demand for individual motorised transport and lead to an improvement in vehicle efficiency by fostering the adoption of efficient vehicle propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kloess, Maximilian & Müller, Andreas, 2011. "Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5045-5062, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5045-5062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 172-183.
    2. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    3. Travesset-Baro, Oriol & Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó. & Jover, Eric & Rosas-Casals, Marti, 2016. "Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 78-92.
    4. Garth Heutel & Erich Muehlegger, 2015. "Consumer Learning and Hybrid Vehicle Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(1), pages 125-161, September.
    5. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2015. "Comparative analysis of hydrogen, biofuels and electricity transitional pathways to sustainable transport in a renewable-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 614-627.
    6. Robert Pietzcker & Thomas Longden & Wenying Chen & Sha Fu & Elmar Kriegler & Page Kyle & Gunnar Luderer, 2013. "Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models," Working Papers 2013.08, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. González Palencia, Juan C. & Sakamaki, Tsukasa & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2015. "Impact of powertrain electrification, vehicle size reduction and lightweight materials substitution on energy use, CO2 emissions and cost of a passenger light-duty vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1489-1504.
    8. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    9. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Martin, Niall P.D. & Boies, Adam M., 2016. "Quantifying the role of vehicle size, powertrain technology, activity and consumer behaviour on new UK passenger vehicle fleet energy use and emissions under different policy objectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 196-212.
    10. Alam, Md. Saniul & Hyde, Bernard & Duffy, Paul & McNabola, Aonghus, 2017. "Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 283-300.
    11. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2014. "Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-142.
    12. González Palencia, Juan C. & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2016. "Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 96-109.
    13. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2014. "Techno-economic assessment of lightweight and zero emission vehicles deployment in the passenger car fleet of developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 129-142.
    14. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2017:i:1:p:20-:d:124000 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:1444-1462 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jiménez, Juan Luis & Perdiguero, Jordi & García, Carmen, 2016. "Evaluation of subsidies programs to sell green cars: Impact on prices, quantities and efficiency," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 105-118.
    17. Fontes, T. & Pereira, S.R., 2014. "Impact assessment of road fleet transitions on emissions: The case study of a medium European size country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-185.
    18. Querini, Florent & Benetto, Enrico, 2014. "Agent-based modelling for assessing hybrid and electric cars deployment policies in Luxembourg and Lorraine," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 149-161.
    19. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Martin, Niall P.D. & Boies, Adam M., 2014. "Cost-effectiveness of alternative powertrains for reduced energy use and CO2 emissions in passenger vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 44-61.
    20. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2012. "Energy use and CO2 emissions reduction potential in passenger car fleet using zero emission vehicles and lightweight materials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 548-565.

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