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Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data

Author

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  • Driscoll, Áine
  • Lyons, Seán
  • Mariuzzo, Franco
  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

We have modelled the market for new cars in Ireland with the aim of quantifying the values placed on a range of observable car characteristics. Mid-sized petrol cars with a manual transmission sell best. Price and perhaps fuel cost are negatively associated with sales, and acceleration and perhaps range are positively associated. Hybrid cars are popular. The values of car characteristics are then used to simulate the likely market shares of three new electric vehicles. Electric vehicles tend to be more expensive even after tax breaks and subsidies are applied, but we assume their market shares would benefit from an “environmental” premium similar to those of hybrid cars. The “environmental” premium and the level of subsidies would need to be raised to incredible levels to reach the government target of 10% market penetration of all-electric vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Driscoll, Áine & Lyons, Seán & Mariuzzo, Franco & Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 686-696.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:686-696
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Geng & Inderbitzin, Alessandro & Bening, Catharina, 2015. "Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles: A probabilistic analysis and projection across market segments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 196-214.
    2. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura.
    3. Larson, Paul D. & Viáfara, Jairo & Parsons, Robert V. & Elias, Arne, 2014. "Consumer attitudes about electric cars: Pricing analysis and policy implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 299-314.
    4. Taefi, Tessa T. & Kreutzfeldt, Jochen & Held, Tobias & Fink, Andreas, 2016. "Supporting the adoption of electric vehicles in urban road freight transport – A multi-criteria analysis of policy measures in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 61-79.
    5. Poullikkas, Andreas, 2015. "Sustainable options for electric vehicle technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1277-1287.

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