Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data
We have modelled the market for new cars in Ireland with the aim of quantifying the values placed on a range of observable car characteristics. Mid-sized petrol cars with a manual transmission sell best. Price and perhaps fuel cost are negatively associated with sales, and acceleration and perhaps range are positively associated. Hybrid cars are popular. The values of car characteristics are then used to simulate the likely market shares of three new electric vehicles. Electric vehicles tend to be more expensive even after tax breaks and subsidies are applied, but we assume their market shares would benefit from an “environmental” premium similar to those of hybrid cars. The “environmental” premium and the level of subsidies would need to be raised to incredible levels to reach the government target of 10% market penetration of all-electric vehicles.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. & Howley, Martin & Cunningham, Stephen & Bazilian, Morgan, 2009. "How private car purchasing trends offset efficiency gains and the successful energy policy response," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3790-3802, October.
- Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7815-7824.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:34 is not listed on IDEAS
- Offer, G.J. & Contestabile, M. & Howey, D.A. & Clague, R. & Brandon, N.P., 2011. "Techno-economic and behavioural analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1939-1950, April.
- Amil Petrin, 2002. "Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 705-729, August.
- Jerry Hausman & Gregory Leonard & J. Douglas Zona, 1994. "Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 34, pages 143-157.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:34:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mandell, Svante, 2009.
"Policies towards a more efficient car fleet,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5184-5191, December.
- Mandell, Svante, 2008. "Policies towards a more efficient car fleet," Working Papers 2008:12, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
- Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
- Nevo, Aviv, 1998. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-To-Eat Cereal Industry," Food Marketing Policy Center Research Reports 037, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
- Nevo, Aviv, 1999. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt7cm5p858, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Aviv Nevo, 2003. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Microeconomics 0303006, EconWPA.
- Nevo, Aviv, 1998. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-To-Eat Cereal Industry," Research Reports 25164, University of Connecticut, Food Marketing Policy Center.
- Aviv Nevo, 1998. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," NBER Working Papers 6387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 172-183.
- Hugh Hennessy & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(2), pages 135-157.
- David Calef & Robert Goble, 2007. "The allure of technology: How France and California promoted electric and hybrid vehicles to reduce urban air pollution," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 40(1), pages 1-34, March.
- Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
- Blumstein, Carl & Goldstone, Seymour & Lutzenhiser, Loren, 2000. "A theory-based approach to market transformation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 137-144, February.
- Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2010. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number jacb201051, December.
- Birner, Sabrina & Martinot, Eric, 2005. "Promoting energy-efficient products: GEF experience and lessons for market transformation in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(14), pages 1765-1779, September.
- Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
- Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3tb6j874, University of California Transportation Center.
- Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
- Axsen, Jonn & Mountain, Dean C. & Jaccard, Mark, 2009. "Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt02n9j6cv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
- Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
- Morgenroth, Edgar, 2011. "How Can We Improve Evaluation Methods for Public Infrastructure?," Papers EC2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Shepherd, Simon & Bonsall, Peter & Harrison, Gillian, 2012. "Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: A model based study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 62-74.
- Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
- Axsen, Jonn & Mountain, Dean C. & Jaccard, Mark, 2009. "Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 221-238, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:686-696. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.