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Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns

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  • Brownstone, David
  • Train, Kenneth

Abstract

We describe and apply choice models, including generalizations of logit called 'mixed logits,' that do not exhibit the restrictive 'independence from irrelevant alternatives' property and can approximate any substitution pattern. The models are estimated on data from a stated-preference survey that elicited customers' preferences among gas, electric, methanol, and CNG vehicles with various attributes.

Suggested Citation

  • Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt1j6814b3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1992. "On Efficiency of Methods of Simulated Moments and Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Response Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 518-552, December.
    2. McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul A, 1994. "Estimation by Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 591-608, November.
    3. Kenneth Train, "undated". "Simulation Methods for Probit and Related Models Based on Convenient Error Partitioning," Working Papers _009, University of California at Berkeley, Econometrics Laboratory Software Archive.
    4. Stern, Steven, 1992. "A Method for Smoothing Simulated Moments of Discrete Probabilities in Multinomial Probit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 943-952, July.
    5. Kenneth E. Train, 1998. "Recreation Demand Models with Taste Differences over People," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(2), pages 230-239.
    6. Tülin Erdem, 1996. "A Dynamic Analysis of Market Structure Based on Panel Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 359-378.
    7. Train, Kenneth E., 1995. "Simulation Methods for Probit and Related Models Based on Convenient Error Partitioning," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt94h8x4gd, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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