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Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns

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  • Brownstone, David
  • Train, Kenneth

Abstract

We describe and apply choice models, including generalizations of logit called 'mixed logits,' that do not exhibit the restrictive 'independence from irrelevant alternatives' property and can approximate any substitution pattern. The models are estimated on data from a stated-preference survey that elicited customers' preferences among gas, electric, methanol, and CNG vehicles with various attributes.
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  • Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:89:y:1998:i:1-2:p:109-129
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    8. Stern, Steven, 1992. "A Method for Smoothing Simulated Moments of Discrete Probabilities in Multinomial Probit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 943-952, July.
    9. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S & Golob, Thomas F & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3sm7w9zk, University of California Transportation Center.
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