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A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

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Listed:
  • Brownstone, David
  • Bunch, David S.
  • Golob, Thomas F.
  • Ren, Weiping

Abstract

The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a mlcro-slmulatlon demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in Cahforma. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by ume of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modehng vehicle transactions rather than vehlcle holdings. The model Is calibrated using stated preference data from a new study of 4,747 urban Califorma households. These results are potentially useful to public transportation and energy agencles m their evaluation of alternatives to current gasoline-powered vehicles. The findings are also useful to manufacturers faced with designLug and marketing alternauve-fuel vehicles as well as to utility companies who need to develop long-run demand-side management plamung strategies

Suggested Citation

  • Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S. & Golob, Thomas F. & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0244r8g2, University of California Transportation Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt0244r8g2
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    1. P Gordon & H W Richardson & H L Wong, 1986. "The Distribution of Population and Employment in a Polycentric City: The Case of Los Angeles," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 18(2), pages 161-173, February.
    2. Robin Dubin, 1991. "Commuting Patterns and Firm Decentralization," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 67(1), pages 15-29.
    3. Cervero, Robert, 1989. "Jobs-Housing Balancing and Regional Mobility," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7mx3k73h, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "The Rational Locator: Why Travel Times Have Remained Stable," Working Papers 199402, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
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