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A dynamic analysis of household car ownership

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  • Nolan, Anne

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of household car ownership, using Irish longitudinal data for the period 1995-2001. This was a period of rapid economic and social change in Ireland, with the proportion of households with one or more cars growing from 74.6% to 80.8%. Understanding the determinants of household car ownership, a key determinant of household travel behaviour more generally, is particularly important in the context of current policy developments which seek to encourage more sustainable means of travel. In this paper, we use longitudinal data to estimate dynamic models of household car ownership, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. We find income and previous car ownership to be the strongest determinants of differences in household car ownership, with the effect of permanent income having a stronger and more significant effect on the probability of household car ownership than current income. In addition, income elasticities differ by previous car ownership status, with income elasticities higher for those households with no car in the initial period. Other important influences include household composition (in particular, the presence of young children) and lifecycle effects, which create challenges for policymakers in seeking to change travel behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:44:y:2010:i:6:p:446-455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hugh Hennessy & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(2), pages 135-157.
    2. Pyddoke, Roger & Creutzer, Christopher, 2014. "Household car ownership in urban and rural areas in Sweden 1999–2008," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:21, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    3. Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed & Jaber, Jamal & Al-Hinti, Ismael & Abdallat, Yousef, 2013. "Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 129-138.
    4. Abu Oakil & Dick Ettema & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 889-904, July.
    5. Zhang, Zhao & Jin, Wen & Jiang, Hai & Xie, Qianyan & Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian, 2017. "Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-20.
    6. repec:kap:transp:v:44:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11116-016-9693-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nicholas J. Klein & Michael J. Smart, 2017. "Car today, gone tomorrow: The ephemeral car in low-income, immigrant and minority families," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 495-510, May.
    8. Michael Grimsrud & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2014. "Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.
    10. Sabreena Anowar & Shamsunnahar Yasmin & Naveen Eluru & Luis Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Analyzing car ownership in Quebec City: a comparison of traditional and latent class ordered and unordered models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1013-1039, September.
    11. repec:eee:transa:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:51-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Eakins, John, 2016. "An application of the double hurdle model to petrol and diesel household expenditures in Ireland," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 84-93.
    13. Xu, Mingtao & Ye, Zhirui & Shan, Xiaofeng, 2016. "Modeling, analysis, and simulation of the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 417-428.
    14. Jennings, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. & Schipper, Lee, 2013. "Irish passenger transport: Data refinements, international comparisons, and decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 151-164.
    15. repec:eee:retrec:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:57-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    17. Soltani, Ali, 2017. "Social and urban form determinants of vehicle ownership; evidence from a developing country," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 90-100.
    18. Shen, Qing & Chen, Peng & Pan, Haixiao, 2016. "Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 31-44.
    19. repec:bla:tvecsg:v:107:y:2016:i:5:p:611-627 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Driscoll, Áine & Lyons, Seán & Mariuzzo, Franco & Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 686-696.
    21. Bjerkan, Kristin Ystmark & Nordtømme, Marianne Elvsaas, 2014. "Car use in the leisure lives of adolescents. Does household structure matter?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    22. Wu, Na & Zhao, Shengchuan & Zhang, Qi, 2016. "A study on the determinants of private car ownership in China: Findings from the panel data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 186-195.
    23. Kemal Çelik & Erkan Oktay & Muhsin Doğan Ebül & Ömer Özhancı, 2015. "Factors influencing consumers’ light commercial vehicle purchase intention in a developing country," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 148-162, September.
    24. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2016. "Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal, Canada using pseudo panel analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 531-548, May.
    25. repec:eee:transa:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:181-196 is not listed on IDEAS

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