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The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: The Scottish case

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  • Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios
  • Guilló, María Dolores

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of the Scottish National Party (SNP) support using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) during 1999–06. We study the relative importance of political sentiments and egocentric economic evaluations by disentangling the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity by gender. Egocentric economic evaluations constitute an important determinant of SNP support over the entire period, being this effect stronger among the male electorate. The results are consistent with the electors holding the incumbent Labour Party accountable for their personal financial situation, though financial security augments the nationalist propensity among partisan voters. Furthermore, retrospective economic evaluations form a significant determinant of incumbent Labour Party support in both the 1999–02 and 2003–06 intervening electoral cycles.

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  • Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios & Guilló, María Dolores, 2018. "The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: The Scottish case," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 192-213.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:192-213
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.06.003
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    1. Georgios Marios & María Dolores, 2024. "Identifying the economic determinants of individual voting behaviour in UK general elections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 267-289.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Egocentric economic evaluations; Political preferences; Unobserved heterogeneity; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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