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Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: Evidence from dynamic models for binary panel data

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  • Giarda, Elena

Abstract

This paper builds on existing studies on households’ financial distress and provides new evidence on the determinants of financial hardship in Italy and its persistence over time. It suggests a quantitative definition of financial distress based on the distribution of net wealth, and tests whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulty is persistent over time, using (random and fixed effects) dynamic models for binary panel data. The analysis exploits the longitudinal component of the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth for the period 1998–2006. Its results show that, after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity, past values of the outcome variable play a large part in explaining the probability of experiencing financial distress. In addition, the probability of financial vulnerability decreases with income and greater sophistication of the household portfolio and, at least in one of the model specifications, increases in areas with higher unemployment rates.

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  • Giarda, Elena, 2013. "Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: Evidence from dynamic models for binary panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3425-3434.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:9:p:3425-3434
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.05.005
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    2. Elena Giarda & Gloria Moroni, 2018. "The Degree of Poverty Persistence and the Role of Regional Disparities in Italy in Comparison with France, Spain and the UK," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 163-202, February.
    3. French, Declan & Vigne, Samuel, 2019. "The causes and consequences of household financial strain: A systematic review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 150-156.
    4. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2017. "DPB: Dynamic Panel Binary Data Models in gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 79(i08).
    5. Marianna Brunetti & Elena Giarda & Costanza Torricelli, 2016. "Is Financial Fragility a Matter of Illiquidity? An Appraisal for Italian Households," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(4), pages 628-649, December.
    6. Liaqat Ali & Muhammad Kamran Naqi Khan & Habib Ahmad, 2020. "Financial Fragility of Pakistani Household," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 572-590, September.
    7. Sarah Brown & Pulak Ghosh & Bhuvanesh Pareek & Karl Taylor, 2017. "Financial Hardship and Saving Behaviour: Bayesian Analysis of British Panel Data," Working Papers 2017011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    8. Francesco Bartolucci & Valentina Nigro & Claudia Pigini, 2018. "Testing for state dependence in binary panel data with individual covariates by a modified quadratic exponential model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 61-88, January.
    9. Grzegorz Wałęga & Agnieszka Wałęga, 2021. "Over-indebted Households in Poland: Classification Tree Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 561-584, January.
    10. Marianna Brunetti & Elena Giarda & Costanza Torricelli, 2016. "Is Financial Fragility a Matter of Illiquidity? An Appraisal for Italian Households," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(4), pages 628-649, December.
    11. Declan French, 2018. "Financial strain in the United Kingdom," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 163-182.
    12. Pigini, Claudia & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2016. "State dependence in access to credit," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 17-34.
    13. Marianna Brunetti & Elena Giarda & Costanza Torricelli, 2020. "Financial Fragility across Europe and the US: The Role of Portfolio Choices, Household Features and Economic-institutional Setup," CEIS Research Paper 487, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 May 2020.
    14. Alessandra Bettocchi & Elena Giarda & Cristiana Moriconi & Federica Orsini & Rita Romeo, 2018. "Assessing and predicting financial vulnerability of Italian households: a micro-macro approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 587-605, August.
    15. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," Working Papers 421, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    17. Brown, Sarah & Ghosh, Pulak & Taylor, Karl, 2014. "The existence and persistence of household financial hardship: A Bayesian multivariate dynamic logit framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 285-298.
    18. Soyoon Weon & David W. Rothwell, 2020. "Dynamics of Asset Poverty in South Korea," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 150(2), pages 639-657, July.
    19. Piotr Bialowolski & Dorota Weziak-Bialowolska, 2014. "The Index of Household Financial Condition, Combining Subjective and Objective Indicators: An Appraisal of Italian Households," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 365-385, August.
    20. Chichaibelu, Bezawit Beyene & Waibel, Hermann, 2017. "Borrowing from “Pui” to Pay “Pom”: Multiple Borrowing and Over-Indebtedness in Rural Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 338-350.
    21. Chichaibelu, Bezawit & Waibel, Hermann, 2015. "The Interrelated Dynamics of Multiple Borrowing and Over-indebtedness among Rural Households in Thailand and Vietnam," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211463, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Luca Zanin, 2016. "On Italian Households’ Economic Inadequacy Using Quali-Quantitative Measures," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 59-88, August.
    23. K. Sudhir & Nathan Yang, 2014. "Exploiting the Choice-Consumption Mismatch: A New Approach to Disentangle State Dependence and Heterogeneity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1941, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    24. Chichaibelu, Bezawit Beyene & Waibel, Hermann, 2018. "Over-indebtedness and its persistence in rural households in Thailand and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-23.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household financial distress; Net wealth; Dynamic models for binary panel data; SHIW;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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