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Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain

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  • Matas, Anna
  • Raymond, Josep-LLuis

Abstract

This paper analyses the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last two decades. A discrete choice model is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990 and 2000. The paper compares the two alternative decision mechanisms used for modelling car ownership: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms and concludes that on the basis of forecasting performance, the multinomial logit model and the ordered probit model are almost undistinguishable. The empirical results show that income elasticity is not constant and declines as car ownership increases. Besides, households living in rural areas are less income sensitive than those living in urban areas. Car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport for those living in the largest cities. The results also confirm the existence of a generation effect, which will vanish around the year 2020, a weak life-cycle effect, and a positive effect of employment on the number of cars per household. Finally, the change in the estimated coefficients over time reflects an increase in mobility needs and, consequently, an increase in car ownership. The study also quantifies the relative importance of each explanatory factor to car ownership growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Matas, Anna & Raymond, Josep-LLuis, 2008. "Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 187-202, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:42:y:2008:i:1:p:187-202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dargay, Joyce M., 2002. "Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 351-366, September.
    2. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond, 2007. "Cross-section data, disequilibrium situations and estimated coefficients: evidence from car ownership demand," Working Papers XREAP2007-04, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2007.
    3. Kitamura, Ryuichi & Bunch, David S., 1990. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Household Car Ownership: A Panel Analysis Using Ordered-Response Probit Models with Error Components," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0qv4q55r, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Modelling car ownership in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-219, March.
    5. Dargay, Joyce M, 2001. "The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 807-821, November.
    6. Giuliano, Genevieve & Dargay, Joyce, 2006. "Car ownership, travel and land use: a comparison of the US and Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 106-124, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Raúl Ramos & Esteban Sanromá, 2013. "Overeducation and Local Labour Markets in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 104(3), pages 278-291, July.
    2. Chiou, Yu-Chiun & Wen, Chieh-Hua & Tsai, Shih-Hsun & Wang, Wei-Ying, 2009. "Integrated modeling of car/motorcycle ownership, type and usage for estimating energy consumption and emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 665-684, August.
    3. Michael Grimsrud & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2014. "Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Marquet, Oriol & Miralles-Guasch, Carme, 2014. "Walking short distances. The socioeconomic drivers for the use of proximity in everyday mobility in Barcelona," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 210-222.
    5. Sultana, Selima, 2015. "Factors associated with students' parking-pass purchase decisions: Evidence from an American University," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 65-75.
    6. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.
    7. Sabreena Anowar & Shamsunnahar Yasmin & Naveen Eluru & Luis Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Analyzing car ownership in Quebec City: a comparison of traditional and latent class ordered and unordered models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1013-1039, September.
    8. Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 37-53.
    9. Xu, Mingtao & Ye, Zhirui & Shan, Xiaofeng, 2016. "Modeling, analysis, and simulation of the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 417-428.
    10. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    11. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
    12. Soltani, Ali, 2017. "Social and urban form determinants of vehicle ownership; evidence from a developing country," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 90-100.
    13. Copenhagen Economics, 2010. "Company Car Taxation," Taxation Papers 22, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    14. Matas, Anna & Raymond, José-Luis & Roig, José-Luis, 2009. "Car ownership and access to jobs in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 607-617, July.
    15. Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-85.
    16. Kemal Çelik & Erkan Oktay & Muhsin Doğan Ebül & Ömer Özhancı, 2015. "Factors influencing consumers’ light commercial vehicle purchase intention in a developing country," Management & Marketing, De Gruyter Open, vol. 10(2), pages 148-162, September.
    17. repec:eee:transa:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:218-227 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:eee:transa:v:109:y:2018:i:c:p:24-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2016. "Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal, Canada using pseudo panel analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 531-548, May.

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