IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: A model based study

  • Shepherd, Simon
  • Bonsall, Peter
  • Harrison, Gillian
Registered author(s):

    This paper develops a system dynamics model of the UK take-up of electric vehicles over the next 40 years. The model extends previous work by Struben and Sterman (2008) to allow analysis of the UK market. The impact on uptake and CO2 emissions of factors such as subsidies, range, charge point availability, emission rates and a revenue preserving tax are considered. We show that subsidies have little impact on take-up under a traditional business as usual case. However, when we introduce a conditional marketing scenario, they play an important role in tipping the market into a successful trajectory. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions on word of mouth, average vehicle life and emissions rates are explored and we find that changing these can result in a greater impact on take-up and emissions than policy or vehicle attribute factors. Our results have important policy implications.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X11001387
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2012)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 62-74

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:20:y:2012:i:c:p:62-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.12.006
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description

    Order Information: Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
    Web: https://shop.elsevier.com/order?id=30473&ref=30473_01_ooc_1&version=01

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2005. "A scenario analysis of CO2 emission trends from car travel: Great Britain 2000-2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 175-184, March.
    2. Jeroen Struben & John D Sterman, 2008. "Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(6), pages 1070-1097, November.
    3. Caulfield, Brian & Farrell, Séona & McMahon, Brian, 2010. "Examining individuals preferences for hybrid electric and alternatively fuelled vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 381-387, November.
    4. Frank M. Bass & Alain V. Bultez, 1982. "Technical Note—A Note on Optimal Strategic Pricing of Technological Innovations," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(4), pages 371-378.
    5. Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.
    6. John K. Dagsvik & Dag G. Wetterwald & Rolf Aaberge, 1996. "Potential Demand for Alternative Fuel Vehicles," Discussion Papers 165, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S. & Train, Kenneth, 2000. "Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 315-338, June.
    8. David L. Greene & K.G. Duleep & Walter McManus, 2004. "Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Market," Industrial Organization 0410003, EconWPA.
    9. Yeh, Sonia, 2007. "An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: The case of natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5865-5875, November.
    10. Jeroen Struben & John D Sterman, 2008. "Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems," Environment and Planning B, SAGE Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 1070-1097, December.
    11. Christopher J. Easingwood & Vijay Mahajan & Eitan Muller, 1983. "A Nonuniform Influence Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 273-295.
    12. Janssen, Arthur & Lienin, Stephan F. & Gassmann, Fritz & Wokaun, Alexander, 2006. "Model aided policy development for the market penetration of natural gas vehicles in Switzerland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 316-333, May.
    13. Albert C. Bemmaor & Janghyuk Lee, 2002. "The Impact of Heterogeneity and Ill-Conditioning on Diffusion Model Parameter Estimates," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 209-220, November.
    14. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
    15. Aftabuzzaman, Md & Mazloumi, Ehsan, 2011. "Achieving sustainable urban transport mobility in post peak oil era," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 695-702, September.
    16. Yetano Roche, María & Mourato, Susana & Fischedick, Manfred & Pietzner, Katja & Viebahn, Peter, 2010. "Public attitudes towards and demand for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles: A review of the evidence and methodological implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5301-5310, October.
    17. Joe A. Dodson, Jr. & Eitan Muller, 1978. "Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and Word-of-Mouth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1568-1578, November.
    18. Flynn, Peter C., 2002. "Commercializing an alternate vehicle fuel: lessons learned from natural gas for vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 613-619, June.
    19. Høyer, Karl Georg, 2008. "The history of alternative fuels in transportation: The case of electric and hybrid cars," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 63-71, June.
    20. Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
    21. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:20:y:2012:i:c:p:62-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.