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Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: A model based study

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  • Shepherd, Simon
  • Bonsall, Peter
  • Harrison, Gillian

Abstract

This paper develops a system dynamics model of the UK take-up of electric vehicles over the next 40 years. The model extends previous work by Struben and Sterman (2008) to allow analysis of the UK market. The impact on uptake and CO2 emissions of factors such as subsidies, range, charge point availability, emission rates and a revenue preserving tax are considered. We show that subsidies have little impact on take-up under a traditional business as usual case. However, when we introduce a conditional marketing scenario, they play an important role in tipping the market into a successful trajectory. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions on word of mouth, average vehicle life and emissions rates are explored and we find that changing these can result in a greater impact on take-up and emissions than policy or vehicle attribute factors. Our results have important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Shepherd, Simon & Bonsall, Peter & Harrison, Gillian, 2012. "Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: A model based study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 62-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:20:y:2012:i:c:p:62-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.12.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xingping & Liang, Yanni & Liu, Wenfeng, 2017. "Pricing model for the charging of electric vehicles based on system dynamics in Beijing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 218-234.
    2. Rattanachot, Wit & Wang, Yuhong & Chong, Dan & Suwansawas, Suchatvee, 2015. "Adaptation strategies of transport infrastructures to global climate change," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 159-166.
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    4. repec:eee:transa:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:163-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Adepetu, Adedamola & Keshav, Srinivasan & Arya, Vijay, 2016. "An agent-based electric vehicle ecosystem model: San Francisco case study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 109-122.
    6. Harrison, Gillian & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 165-178.
    7. repec:eee:renene:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:299-308 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:trapol:v:59:y:2017:i:c:p:165-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2014. "Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-142.
    10. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2015. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-112.
    11. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick, 2015. "A review of combined models for market diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles and their refueling infrastructure," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 783-793.
    12. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data — Part I: Model structure and validation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 411-421.
    13. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Harrison, Gillian & Jones, Lee & Hill, Andrew & Beaudet, Alexandre & Thiel, Christian, 2016. "A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 133-146.
    14. Driscoll, Áine & Lyons, Seán & Mariuzzo, Franco & Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 686-696.
    15. Cartenì, Armando & Cascetta, Ennio & de Luca, Stefano, 2016. "A random utility model for park & carsharing services and the pure preference for electric vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 49-59.
    16. repec:eee:transa:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:320-332 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:eee:enepol:v:110:y:2017:i:c:p:447-460 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Riesz, Jenny & Sotiriadis, Claire & Ambach, Daisy & Donovan, Stuart, 2016. "Quantifying the costs of a rapid transition to electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 287-300.
    19. Massiani, Jérôme, 2015. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of policies for the development of electric vehicles in Germany: Methods and results," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 19-26.
    20. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:676-:d:134340 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Martin Zsifkovits & Markus Günther, 2015. "Simulating resistances in innovation diffusion over multiple generations: an agent-based approach for fuel-cell vehicles," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 23(2), pages 501-522, June.
    22. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data. Part I: Model structure and validation," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S4/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    23. Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Cansino, José M. & Lerma, Enrique, 2014. "Main drivers for local tax incentives to promote electric vehicles: The Spanish case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-9.
    24. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.

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