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Potential Demand for Alternative Fuel Vehicles

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential household demand for alternative fuel vehicles in Norway, by applying data from a stated preference survey. The alternative fuel vehicles we consider are liquid propane gas and electric powered vehicles in addition to a dual-fuel vehicle. In this survey each respondent, in a randomly selected sample, was exposed to 15 experiments. In each experiment the respondent is asked to rank three hypothetical vehicles characterized by specified attributes, according to the respondent's preferences. Several versions of a random utility model are formulated and estimated. They include the ordered logit model and a model with preferences that are correlated across experiments. The model is applied to predict changes in demand resulting from price changes, and to assess the willingness to pay for alternative fuel vechicles.

Suggested Citation

  • John K. Dagsvik & Dag G. Wetterwald & Rolf Aaberge, 1996. "Potential Demand for Alternative Fuel Vehicles," Discussion Papers 165, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hensher, David A., 1982. "Functional measurement, individual preference and discrete-choice modelling: Theory and application," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 323-335, December.
    2. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
    3. Dagsvik, John K. & Wennemo, Tom & Wetterwald, Dag G. & Aaberge, Rolf, 2002. "Potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 361-384, May.
    4. Calfee, John E., 1985. "Estimating the demand for electric automobiles using fully disaggregated probabilistic choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 287-301, August.
    5. Dagsvik, John K., 1988. "Markov chains generated by maximizing components of multidimensional extremal processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 31-45, April.
    6. Dagsvik, J.K., 1995. "The Structure of Intertemporal Models for Myopic Discrete Choice with Random Preferences," Memorandum 11/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Mannering, Fred L. & Train, Kenneth, 1985. "Recent directions in automobile demand modeling," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 265-274, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stated preference; random utility; alternative fuel vehicles; ordered logit model; serially dependent preferences.;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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