Model aided policy development for the market penetration of natural gas vehicles in Switzerland

Introduction of alternative fuels in the passenger car fleet is widely discussed in the light of emission reductions. Worldwide experiences show that the market introduction depends on the actions of many stakeholders, like car industry, fuel companies and consumers. The process demands well-timed actions and investments, whilst economic chances and risks are distributed highly unequally. Policy makers set the framework conditions, although the influence of the height and timing of subsidies, tax reductions and other stimulation policies are not well understood yet. The market introduction of alternative fuel vehicles was studied with the example of natural gas cars in Switzerland. Stakeholder analysis and system dynamics modeling techniques were used to characterize the system. Analyses identify difficulties and chances in the market penetration process of natural gas cars. For example, a critical balance between fueling station upgrade investments and natural gas car sales is needed. Further, it is found that large time delays exist between strategic policy actions and frequently used market penetration indicators (e.g. car sales and infrastructure expansion), limiting the ability of policy makers to assess the performance of their strategy. Referring to elements of the Balanced Scorecard approach, a set of five alternative indicators is proposed to better measure the performance of the implemented strategy.