IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Market

Listed author(s):
  • David L. Greene

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • K.G. Duleep

    (Energy & Environmental Analysis, Inc.)

  • Walter McManus

    (J.D. Power & Associates)

Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine- transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4- 7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0410003.

in new window

Length: 93 pages
Date of creation: 05 Oct 2004
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0410003
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 93
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. McCarthy, Patrick S, 1996. "Market Price and Income Elasticities of New Vehicles Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 543-547, August.
  2. Kleit, Andrew N, 1990. "The Effect of Annual Changes in Automobile Fuel Economy Standards," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 151-172, June.
  3. Bordley, Robert, 1994. "An overlapping choice set model of automotive price elasticities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 401-408, December.
  4. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
  5. Burke, Andy & Abeles, Ethan C., 2004. "Feasible CAFE Standard Increases Using Emerging Diesel and Hybrid-Electric Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3dp4r3bs, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. Studies on the automobile industry

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0410003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.