IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)


  • Gül, Timur
  • Kypreos, Socrates
  • Turton, Hal
  • Barreto, Leonardo


This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight “bottom-up” model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that “keeping the hydrogen option open” does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Gül, Timur & Kypreos, Socrates & Turton, Hal & Barreto, Leonardo, 2009. "An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1423-1437.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:34:y:2009:i:10:p:1423-1437
    DOI: 10.1016/

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Melaina, Marc W, 2007. "Turn of the century refueling: A review of innovations in early gasoline refueling methods and analogies for hydrogen," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8501255w, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
    3. Azar, Christian & Lindgren, Kristian & Andersson, Bjorn A., 2003. "Global energy scenarios meeting stringent CO2 constraints--cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 961-976, August.
    4. Simbeck, D.R., 2004. "CO2 capture and storage—the essential bridge to the hydrogen economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1633-1641.
    5. Barreto, Leonardo & Kypreos, Socrates, 2004. "Emissions trading and technology deployment in an energy-systems "bottom-up" model with technology learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 243-261, October.
    6. Sabine Messner, 1997. "Endogenized technological learning in an energy systems model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 291-313.
    7. Melaina, Marc W., 2007. "Turn of the century refueling: A review of innovations in early gasoline refueling methods and analogies for hydrogen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4919-4934, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:34:y:2009:i:10:p:1423-1437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.