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Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

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  • Bahn, Olivier
  • Marcy, Mathilde
  • Vaillancourt, Kathleen
  • Waaub, Jean-Philippe

Abstract

We use a newly developed bottom-up model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess potentials for electrification of the road transport sector. A special emphasis has been put on the modelling of the Canadian road transport, by considering a variety of vehicles for passenger and freight transportation. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have analysed an energy policy scenario imposing targets for electric vehicle penetration and a climate policy scenario imposing targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Our analysis shows on the one hand that electric vehicles penetrate notably the passenger vehicle market after 2040 in the baseline scenario and after 2030 in the energy policy scenario (following the assumed penetration targets). On the other hand, the assumed climate policy forces a stronger penetration of electric vehicles for passenger transportation, with a progressive phasing out of internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas the latter vehicles remain dominant for freight transportation but with a shift away of fossil fuels and in favour of biofuels. A sensitivity analysis on the (assumed) evolution of electric vehicles over time confirms these general trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:593-606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.023
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    Cited by:

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    11. Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Reaching carbon neutral transport sector in Denmark – Evidence from the incorporation of modal shift into the TIMES energy system modeling framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 571-583.
    12. Ibarra-Gutiérrez, Sebastián & Bouchard, Jocelyn & Laflamme, Marcel & Fytas, Konstantinos, 2021. "Assessing the potential of quebec lithium industry: Mineral reserves, lithium-ion batteries production and greenhouse gas emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    14. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2020. "Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    15. Long, Zoe & Axsen, Jonn & Miller, Inger & Kormos, Christine, 2019. "What does Tesla mean to car buyers? Exploring the role of automotive brand in perceptions of battery electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 185-204.
    16. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Alcocer, Yuri & Bahn, Olivier & Fertel, Camille & Frenette, Erik & Garbouj, Hichem & Kanudia, Amit & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Marcy, Mathilde & Neji, Yosra & Waaub,, 2014. "A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 56-65.
    17. Eimantas Neniškis & Arvydas Galinis & Egidijus Norvaiša, 2021. "Improving Transport Modeling in MESSAGE Energy Planning Model: Vehicle Age Distributions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    18. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    19. Hammond, William & Axsen, Jonn & Kjeang, Erik, 2020. "How to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the freight sector: Policy insights from a technology-adoption model of Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Wolinetz, Michael & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 238-250.
    21. Li, Weiqi & Dai, Yaping & Ma, Linwei & Hao, Han & Lu, Haiyan & Albinson, Rosemary & Li, Zheng, 2015. "Oil-saving pathways until 2030 for road freight transportation in China based on a cost-optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 369-384.

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