IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v316y2022ics0306261922004676.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model

Author

Listed:
  • Aryanpur, Vahid
  • Balyk, Olexandr
  • Daly, Hannah
  • Ó Gallachóir, Brian
  • Glynn, James

Abstract

Higher spatial resolution is becoming a key component of energy system analysis. Existing multi-regional national scale energy systems optimisation models (ESOMs) facilitate an improved understanding of spatial dynamics. Yet, region-specific characteristics of transport technologies and infrastructures along with consumer heterogeneity have remained under-investigated. The current paper addresses this gap by developing a multi-regional transport sector within the system-wide TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM). The transport sector is divided into 26 sub-regions, and each region is characterised by the existing vehicle fleet, public transport availability, scrappage rate, annual mileage, vehicle fuel economy and the corresponding passenger and freight mobility demand. The consumers (car buyers) are disaggregated based on their income level to incorporate a more realistic representation of their behaviour in vehicle purchasing decisions. While TIM ensures carbon neutrality across the whole energy system by mid-century, this study mainly explores the decarbonisation of passenger Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs). It shows to what extent different measures (i.e, LDV improvements, monetary incentives, modal shift, biofuel obligation, carbon tax and occupancy rate) can contribute to meeting ambitious mitigation targets by 2030. Spatially resolved analysis as the main novelty of this research presents valuable insights into regional electric vehicles (EVs) diffusion and their electricity consumption. The proposed method can be used to address the uncertainty that arises from consumer heterogeneity in the policymaking process. The findings also suggest keeping financial EV incentives until the mid-2020s to meet the ambitious goals. Finally, decarbonisation without demand-side strategies (i.e., controlling the level of private-car-based mobility) seems to be unachievable.

Suggested Citation

  • Aryanpur, Vahid & Balyk, Olexandr & Daly, Hannah & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Glynn, James, 2022. "Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:316:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922004676
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922004676
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yeh, Sonia & Farrell, Alexander E. & Plevin, Richard J & Sanstad, Alan & Weyant, John, 2008. "Optimizing U.S. Mitigation Strategies for the Light-Duty Transportation Sector: What We Learn from a Bottom-Up Model," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1td1g7qw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Helgeson, Broghan & Peter, Jakob, 2020. "The role of electricity in decarbonizing European road transport – Development and assessment of an integrated multi-sectoral model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    3. Leinert, Stephan & Daly, Hannah & Hyde, Bernard & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2013. "Co-benefits? Not always: Quantifying the negative effect of a CO2-reducing car taxation policy on NOx emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1151-1159.
    4. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    5. ., 2021. "Structural and process dimension in innovation orientation," Chapters, in: Innovation Orientation in Business Services, chapter 6, pages 90-108, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Santos, Georgina & Rembalski, Sebastian, 2021. "Do electric vehicles need subsidies in the UK?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Ramea, Kalai & Bunch, David S. & Yang, Christopher & Yeh, Sonia & Ogden, Joan M., 2018. "Integration of behavioral effects from vehicle choice models into long-term energy systems optimization models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 663-676.
    8. Mallah, Subhash & Bansal, N.K., 2011. "Parametric sensitivity analysis for techno-economic parameters in Indian power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 622-629, March.
    9. Andersen, Kristoffer Steen & Wiese, Catharina & Petrovic, Stefan & McKenna, Russell, 2020. "Exploring the role of households’ hurdle rates and demand elasticities in meeting Danish energy-savings target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "The impact of tax reform on new car purchases in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7059-7067.
    11. Heuberger, Clara F. & Bains, Praveen K. & Mac Dowell, Niall, 2020. "The EV-olution of the power system: A spatio-temporal optimisation model to investigate the impact of electric vehicle deployment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    12. Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
    13. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    14. Schulz, Thorsten F. & Barreto, Leonardo & Kypreos, Socrates & Stucki, Samuel, 2007. "Assessing wood-based synthetic natural gas technologies using the SWISS-MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1948-1959.
    15. Gao, Lan & Wang, Shanyong & Li, Jun & Li, Haidong, 2017. "Application of the extended theory of planned behavior to understand individual’s energy saving behavior in workplaces," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 107-113.
    16. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Melonie B. Williams, 2002. "Estimating Individual Discount Rates in Denmark: A Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1606-1617, December.
    17. Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 172-183.
    18. Haq, Gary & Weiss, Martin, 2018. "Time preference and consumer discount rates - Insights for accelerating the adoption of efficient energy and transport technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 76-88.
    19. Jalil-Vega, F. & Hawkes, A.D., 2018. "Spatially resolved model for studying decarbonisation pathways for heat supply and infrastructure trade-offs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 1051-1072.
    20. Seixas, J. & Simões, S. & Dias, L. & Kanudia, A. & Fortes, P. & Gargiulo, M., 2015. "Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 165-176.
    21. Houston, Douglas A, 1983. "Implicit Discount Rates and the Purchase of Untried, Energy-Saving Durable Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 10(2), pages 236-246, September.
    22. Alam, Md. Saniul & Hyde, Bernard & Duffy, Paul & McNabola, Aonghus, 2017. "Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 283-300.
    23. Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Ou, Shiqi & Ouyang, Minggao, 2020. "Range cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle for heterogeneous consumers: An expanded total ownership cost approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    24. Schleich, Joachim & Gassmann, Xavier & Faure, Corinne & Meissner, Thomas, 2016. "Making the implicit explicit: A look inside the implicit discount rate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 321-331.
    25. Martinsen, Dag & Funk, Carolin & Linssen, Jochen, 2010. "Biomass for transportation fuels--A cost-effective option for the German energy supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 128-140, January.
    26. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    27. Smith, William J., 2010. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles--A low-carbon solution for Ireland?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1485-1499, March.
    28. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & Kern, Florian & McCollum, David, 2020. "Why have multiple climate policies for light-duty vehicles? Policy mix rationales, interactions and research gaps," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 309-326.
    29. Smith, William J., 2010. "Can EV (electric vehicles) address Ireland’s CO2 emissions from transport?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4514-4521.
    30. Sanstad, Alan H & Blumstein, Carl & Stoft, Steven E, 1995. "How high are option values in energy-efficiency investments?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 739-743, September.
    31. Siskos, Pelopidas & Zazias, Georgios & Petropoulos, Apostolos & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & Capros, Pantelis, 2018. "Implications of delaying transport decarbonisation in the EU: A systems analysis using the PRIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 48-60.
    32. van Vliet, Oscar & van den Broek, Machteld & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Combining hybrid cars and synthetic fuels with electricity generation and carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 248-268, January.
    33. Miranda, Raul & Simoes, Sofia & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2019. "Adding detailed transmission constraints to a long-term integrated assessment model – A case study for Brazil using the TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 791-803.
    34. Guo, Shuocheng & Kontou, Eleftheria, 2021. "Disparities and equity issues in electric vehicles rebate allocation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    35. Mulholland, E. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2017. "From technology pathways to policy roadmaps to enabling measures – A multi-model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1030-1041.
    36. Moon, Saedaseul & Lee, Deok-Joo, 2019. "An optimal electric vehicle investment model for consumers using total cost of ownership: A real option approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    37. Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7815-7824.
    38. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    39. Simoes, Sofia & Zeyringer, Marianne & Mayr, Dieter & Huld, Thomas & Nijs, Wouter & Schmidt, Johannes, 2017. "Impact of different levels of geographical disaggregation of wind and PV electricity generation in large energy system models: A case study for Austria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 183-198.
    40. Zhang, Hongjun & Chen, Wenying & Huang, Weilong, 2016. "TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1505-1514.
    41. Fox, Jacob & Axsen, Jonn & Jaccard, Mark, 2017. "Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the U.S. Passenger Vehicle Sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 133-147.
    42. Liu, Zhe & Song, Juhyun & Kubal, Joseph & Susarla, Naresh & Knehr, Kevin W. & Islam, Ehsan & Nelson, Paul & Ahmed, Shabbir, 2021. "Comparing total cost of ownership of battery electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    43. Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    44. Train, Kenneth, 1985. "Discount rates in consumers' energy-related decisions: A review of the literature," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 10(12), pages 1243-1253.
    45. Jablonski, Sophie & Strachan, Neil & Brand, Christian & Bauen, Ausilio, 2010. "The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5799-5816, October.
    46. Danielis, Romeo & Giansoldati, Marco & Rotaris, Lucia, 2018. "A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 268-281.
    47. Salvucci, Raffaele & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2019. "The role of modal shift in decarbonising the Scandinavian transport sector: Applying substitution elasticities in TIMES-Nordic," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haider, Minza & Davis, Matthew & Kumar, Amit, 2024. "Development of a framework to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from the adoption of low-carbon road vehicles in a hydrocarbon-rich region," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    2. Steven S. Salim & Stefan L. Luxembourg & Francesco Dalla Longa & Bob van der Zwaan, 2024. "From Retrofitting to Renewables: Navigating Energy Transition Pathways for European Residential Space Heating," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Luh, Sandro & Kannan, Ramachandran & McKenna, Russell & Schmidt, Thomas J. & Kober, Tom, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of travel time duration and valuation on modal shift in Swiss passenger transportation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    4. Aryanpur, Vahid & Fattahi, Mahshid & Mamipour, Siab & Ghahremani, Mahsa & Gallachóir, Brian Ó & Bazilian, Morgan D. & Glynn, James, 2022. "How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Alam, Md. Saniul & Hyde, Bernard & Duffy, Paul & McNabola, Aonghus, 2017. "Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 283-300.
    3. Pedinotti-Castelle, Marianne & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Amor, Ben, 2022. "Freight transport modal shifts in a TIMES energy model: Impacts of endogenous and exogenous modeling choice," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    4. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    5. Maxwell Woody & Shawn A. Adderly & Rushabh Bohra & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2024. "Electric and gasoline vehicle total cost of ownership across US cities," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 28(2), pages 194-215, April.
    6. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    7. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2020. "Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Marianne Pedinotti-Castelle & Pierre-Olivier Pineau & Kathleen Vaillancourt & Ben Amor, 2021. "Changing Technology or Behavior? The Impacts of a Behavioral Disruption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    11. Sébastien Foudi, 2024. "Are risk attitude, impatience, and impulsivity related to the individual discount rate? Evidence from energy-efficient durable goods," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(4), pages 627-661, June.
    12. Andreas Andreou & Panagiotis Fragkos & Theofano Fotiou & Faidra Filippidou, 2022. "Assessing Lifestyle Transformations and Their Systemic Effects in Energy-System and Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Current Methods and Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    13. Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 172-183.
    14. Qiu, Yueming & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2017. "Risk preference and adverse selection for participation in time-of-use electricity pricing programs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 126-142.
    15. Sarica, Kemal & Tyner, Wallace E., 2013. "Analysis of US renewable fuels policies using a modified MARKAL model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 701-709.
    16. Fodstad, Marte & Crespo del Granado, Pedro & Hellemo, Lars & Knudsen, Brage Rugstad & Pisciella, Paolo & Silvast, Antti & Bordin, Chiara & Schmidt, Sarah & Straus, Julian, 2022. "Next frontiers in energy system modelling: A review on challenges and the state of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Julia Blasch & Claudio Daminato, 2018. "Behavioral anomalies and energy-related individual choices: the role of status-quo bias," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 18/300, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    18. Carrasco-Garcés, Moisés & Vásquez-Lavín, Felipe & Ponce Oliva, Roberto D. & Diaz Pincheira, Francisco & Barrientos, Manuel, 2021. "Estimating the implicit discount rate for new technology adoption of wood-burning stoves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Luh, Sandro & Kannan, Ramachandran & McKenna, Russell & Schmidt, Thomas J. & Kober, Tom, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of travel time duration and valuation on modal shift in Swiss passenger transportation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    20. Malima, Gabriel Clement & Moyo, Francis, 2023. "Are electric vehicles economically viable in sub-Saharan Africa? The total cost of ownership of internal combustion engine and electric vehicles in Tanzania," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 14-26.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:316:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922004676. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.