IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v80y2015icp165-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Seixas, J.
  • Simões, S.
  • Dias, L.
  • Kanudia, A.
  • Fortes, P.
  • Gargiulo, M.

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO2 mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.

Suggested Citation

  • Seixas, J. & Simões, S. & Dias, L. & Kanudia, A. & Fortes, P. & Gargiulo, M., 2015. "Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 165-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:165-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515000415
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oikonomou, V. & Flamos, A. & Gargiulo, M. & Giannakidis, G. & Kanudia, A. & Spijker, E. & Grafakos, S., 2011. "Linking least-cost energy system costs models with MCA: An assessment of the EU renewable energy targets and supporting policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2786-2799, May.
    2. Tran, Martino, 2012. "Technology-behavioural modelling of energy innovation diffusion in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Juul, Nina & Meibom, Peter, 2012. "Road transport and power system scenarios for Northern Europe in 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 573-582.
    4. Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
    5. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Honselaar, Michel & Thiel, Christian, 2012. "Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 404-421.
    6. Dijk, Marc & Orsato, Renato J. & Kemp, René, 2013. "The emergence of an electric mobility trajectory," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 135-145.
    7. Streimikiene, Dalia & Sliogeriene, Jurate, 2011. "Comparative assessment of future motor vehicles under various climate change mitigation scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3833-3838.
    8. Zubaryeva, Alyona & Thiel, Christian & Barbone, Enrico & Mercier, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing factors for the identification of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe: expert opinion elicitation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1622-1637.
    9. P. Capros & Denise Van Regemorter & Leonidas Paroussos & P. Karkatsoulis & C. Fragkiadakis & S. Tsani & I. Charalampidis & Tamas Revesz, 2013. "GEM-E3 Model Documentation," JRC Research Reports JRC83177, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Tie, Siang Fui & Tan, Chee Wei, 2013. "A review of energy sources and energy management system in electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 82-102.
    11. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Safari, M., 2018. "Battery electric vehicles: Looking behind to move forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 54-65.
    2. Liu, Xinglong & Zhao, Fuquan & Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei, 2023. "Comparative analysis for different vehicle powertrains in terms of energy-saving potential and cost-effectiveness in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Aryanpur, Vahid & Balyk, Olexandr & Daly, Hannah & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Glynn, James, 2022. "Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    4. Breetz, Hanna L. & Salon, Deborah, 2018. "Do electric vehicles need subsidies? Ownership costs for conventional, hybrid, and electric vehicles in 14 U.S. cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 238-249.
    5. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
    6. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    7. Tomáš Skrúcaný & Martin Kendra & Ondrej Stopka & Saša Milojević & Tomasz Figlus & Csaba Csiszár, 2019. "Impact of the Electric Mobility Implementation on the Greenhouse Gases Production in Central European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    8. Rodrigues, João L. & Bolognesi, Hugo M. & Melo, Joel D. & Heymann, Fabian & Soares, F.J., 2019. "Spatiotemporal model for estimating electric vehicles adopters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 788-802.
    9. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Lukáš Rečka & Milan Ščasný, 2017. "Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.
    11. Diao, Qinghua & Sun, Wei & Yuan, Xinmei & Li, Lili & Zheng, Zhi, 2016. "Life-cycle private-cost-based competitiveness analysis of electric vehicles in China considering the intangible cost of traffic policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 567-578.
    12. Sun, Lishan & Huang, Yuchen & Liu, Shuli & Chen, Yanyan & Yao, Liya & Kashyap, Anil, 2017. "A completive survey study on the feasibility and adaptation of EVs in Beijing, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 128-139.
    13. Bianco, Vincenzo & Cascetta, Furio & Marino, Alfonso & Nardini, Sergio, 2019. "Understanding energy consumption and carbon emissions in Europe: A focus on inequality issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 120-130.
    14. Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2018. "Cost and energy performance of advanced light duty vehicles: Implications for standards and subsidies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Liu, Hu-Chen & You, Xiao-Yue & Xue, Yi-Xi & Luan, Xue, 2017. "Exploring critical factors influencing the diffusion of electric vehicles in China: A multi-stakeholder perspective," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 46-58.
    16. Rüdisüli, Martin & Bach, Christian & Bauer, Christian & Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier & Elber, Urs & Georges, Gil & Limpach, Robert & Pareschi, Giacomo & Kannan, Ramachandran & Teske, Sinan L., 2022. "Prospective life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions of electricity-based mobility options," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    17. Fontaínhas, José & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2016. "Is investing in an electric car worthwhile from a consumers' perspective?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1459-1477.
    18. Daniele Lerede & Chiara Bustreo & Francesco Gracceva & Yolanda Lechón & Laura Savoldi, 2020. "Analysis of the Effects of Electrification of the Road Transport Sector on the Possible Penetration of Nuclear Fusion in the Long-Term European Energy Mix," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.
    19. Gabriel Brătucu & Adrian Trifan & Lavinia Dovleac & Ioana Bianca Chițu & Raluca Dania Todor & Rareș Brătucu, 2019. "Acquisition of Electric Vehicles—A Step towards Green Consumption. Empirical Research among Romanian Students," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-14, November.
    20. Marianne Pedinotti-Castelle & Pierre-Olivier Pineau & Kathleen Vaillancourt & Ben Amor, 2021. "Changing Technology or Behavior? The Impacts of a Behavioral Disruption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, May.
    21. Kannan, Ramachandran & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2016. "Interplay between electricity and transport sectors – Integrating the Swiss car fleet and electricity system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 514-531.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2015. "Comparative analysis of hydrogen, biofuels and electricity transitional pathways to sustainable transport in a renewable-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 614-627.
    2. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    3. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
    4. Hirte, Georg & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2013. "The optimal subsidy on electric vehicles in German metropolitan areas: A spatial general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 515-528.
    5. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    6. Marletto, Gerardo, 2014. "Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-178.
    7. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    8. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2014. "Techno-economic assessment of lightweight and zero emission vehicles deployment in the passenger car fleet of developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 129-142.
    9. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    10. Weixing Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2020. "What Affects the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Financial Subsidy Policy? Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Yong, Jia Ying & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Tan, Kang Miao & Mithulananthan, N., 2015. "A review on the state-of-the-art technologies of electric vehicle, its impacts and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 365-385.
    12. Samuel Pelletier & Ola Jabali & Gilbert Laporte, 2016. "50th Anniversary Invited Article—Goods Distribution with Electric Vehicles: Review and Research Perspectives," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 3-22, February.
    13. Geir H. Bjertnæs, 2013. "Biofuel mandate versus favourable taxation of electric cars. The case of Norway," Discussion Papers 745, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    14. Nilsson, Måns & Nykvist, Björn, 2016. "Governing the electric vehicle transition – Near term interventions to support a green energy economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1360-1371.
    15. Zubaryeva, Alyona & Thiel, Christian & Zaccarelli, Nicola & Barbone, Enrico & Mercier, Arnaud, 2012. "Spatial multi-criteria assessment of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1477-1489.
    16. Muhammad Azmi & Akihiro Tokai, 2016. "System dynamic modeling of CO2 emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 335-350, December.
    17. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2017. "The impact of energy policies in scenarios on GHG emission reduction in passenger car mobility in the EU-15," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1088-1096.
    18. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Pan, Huizhong, 2018. "Analysis of public acceptance of electric vehicles: An empirical study in Shanghai," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 284-291.
    19. Newbery, David & Strbac, Goran, 2016. "What is needed for battery electric vehicles to become socially cost competitive?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-11.
    20. Seoin Baek & Heetae Kim & Hyun Joon Chang, 2016. "A Feasibility Test on Adopting Electric Vehicles to Serve as Taxis in Daejeon Metropolitan City of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-18, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:165-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.