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Technology-behavioural modelling of energy innovation diffusion in the UK

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  • Tran, Martino
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    Abstract

    The diffusion of energy saving technologies is an important part of UK energy and climate policy. Innovation diffusion can be influenced by both technological and behavioural factors. A computational model is presented to capture how changing technology attributes can influence consumer adoption. The UK vehicle market is case analyzed showing how efficiency improvements in advanced internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles might affect future diffusion of alternative fuelled vehicles (AFVs) which is not often considered in the debate on AFV competitiveness. Scenarios are developed for mass and early market adopters to account for consumer heterogeneity. Simulation results indicate that if AFV performance can keep pace or exceed ICEs this will positively affect AFV diffusion despite increasing competition from ICEs on attributes that currently favour AFVs, such as fuel economy and carbon emissions. However, much of the gains are made at the expense of diesels rather than petrols that also benefit from improved performance. Additional policy measures will likely be necessary to induce rapid AFV diffusion.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261912000244
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 95 (2012)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 1-11

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:95:y:2012:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.01.018
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description

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    Keywords: Innovation diffusion; Adoption behaviour; Energy policy; Alternative fuel vehicles; Computational modelling;

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    Cited by:

    1. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
    2. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    3. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    4. Saxena, Samveg & Phadke, Amol & Gopal, Anand, 2014. "Understanding the fuel savings potential from deploying hybrid cars in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1127-1133.
    5. Lee, Timothy & Yao, Runming & Coker, Phil, 2014. "An analysis of UK policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 267-279.
    6. McCoy, Daire & Lyons, Sean, 2014. "The diffusion of electric vehicles: An agent-based microsimulation," MPRA Paper 54560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2015. "Comparative analysis of hydrogen, biofuels and electricity transitional pathways to sustainable transport in a renewable-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 614-627.
    8. Liu, Xianbing & Fan, Yongbin & Li, Chen, 2016. "Carbon pricing for low carbon technology diffusion: A survey analysis of China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 73-86.
    9. Wolf, Ingo & Schröder, Tobias & Neumann, Jochen & de Haan, Gerhard, 2015. "Changing minds about electric cars: An empirically grounded agent-based modeling approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 269-285.
    10. Seixas, J. & Simões, S. & Dias, L. & Kanudia, A. & Fortes, P. & Gargiulo, M., 2015. "Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 165-176.
    11. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2014. "Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-142.

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