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Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system

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  • Shafiei, Ehsan
  • Davidsdottir, Brynhildur
  • Leaver, Jonathan
  • Stefansson, Hlynur
  • Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi
  • Keith, David R.

Abstract

In this paper, the capacity expansion strategies of biofuels supply and the potential for the market development of biofuel vehicles are examined using an integrated System Dynamics model of energy and transport systems for Iceland. The biofuel markets are simulated in the context of a market-based economic system. The demand side enables an endogenous analysis of the road transport sector in which the long-term evolutions of light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle fleets are simulated through a consumer choice algorithm. Two scenarios are defined to support the fuel and infrastructure for biofuel vehicles: i) the Initial Push scenario as a tracking capacity planning strategy with an initial supply momentum, and ii) the Enthusiastic scenario as a leading capacity strategy with a continuous supply push. The results indicate that the dynamics of the bio-diesel market are not highly sensitive to the supply strategies employed. However, changing the capacity planning strategy could significantly influence the medium-term development of biogas as well as the evolution of the bio-ethanol market throughout the planning horizon until 2050. While the Initial Push scenario is less costly from a fuel supply perspective, the Enthusiastic strategy would be advantageous in terms of overall energy and transport benefits.

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  • Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:409-421
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.013
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    2. Spittler, Nathalie & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Shafiei, Ehsan & Leaver, Jonathan & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Stefansson, Hlynur, 2020. "The role of geothermal resources in sustainable power system planning in Iceland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1081-1090.
    3. Dillman, Kevin Joseph & Fazeli, Reza & Shafiei, Ehsan & Jónsson, Jón Örvar G. & Haraldsson, Hákon Valur & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur, 2021. "Spatiotemporal analysis of the impact of electric vehicle integration on Reykjavik's electrical system at the city and distribution system level," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2017. "How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 58-66.
    5. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Fazeli, Reza & Gestsson, Marías Halldór & Leaver, Jonathan, 2019. "Simulation-based appraisal of tax-induced electro-mobility promotion in Iceland and prospects for energy-economic development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Oliveira, Gabriela D. & Roth, Richard & Dias, Luis C., 2019. "Diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles considering dynamic preferences," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 83-99.
    7. Sarkar, Omprakash & Butti, Sai Kishore & Venkata Mohan, S., 2017. "Acidogenesis driven by hydrogen partial pressure towards bioethanol production through fatty acids reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 425-434.
    8. Horschig, Thomas & Adams, P.W.R. & Gawel, Erik & Thrän, Daniela, 2018. "How to decarbonize the natural gas sector: A dynamic simulation approach for the market development estimation of renewable gas in Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 555-572.
    9. Virgínio e Silva, Joab Oliveira & Almeida, Manuel Fonseca & da Conceição Alvim-Ferraz, Maria & Dias, Joana Maia, 2018. "Integrated production of biodiesel and bioethanol from sweet potato," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-120.
    10. Moretti, Christian & Moro, Alberto & Edwards, Robert & Rocco, Matteo Vincenzo & Colombo, Emanuela, 2017. "Analysis of standard and innovative methods for allocating upstream and refinery GHG emissions to oil products," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 372-381.
    11. Spittler, Nathalie & Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Juliusson, Egill, 2020. "Modelling geothermal resource utilization by incorporating resource dynamics, capacity expansion, and development costs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. Benvenutti, Lívia M. & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Campos, Lucila M.S., 2019. "The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 370-379.
    13. Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Jochem, Patrick, 2019. "Simulating vehicle fleet composition: A review of system dynamics models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Julia A. Steshenko & Anna V. Tikhonova, 2018. "An integral approach to evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 4(2), pages 157-173.

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