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Simulating vehicle fleet composition: A review of system dynamics models

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  • Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.
  • Jochem, Patrick

Abstract

While the market evolution of electric vehicles is uncertain, numerous studies have explored the future market diffusion of this and alternative powertrain technologies. This paper reviews studies that are based on system dynamics models and classifies this literature into ‘automotive industry-oriented’ and ‘public policy-oriented’. Our review shows that the models of most of these studies share basic properties by design, yet differ not only in purpose but also in the assumptions they adopt, particularly with regards to consumer choice of powertrains. Taken together, these diverse modelling exercises can be understood as a model library to gain insights into different key markets. In terms of the type of models examined, this paper also discusses some methodological issues and suggests future modelling developments. Further research needs include the interlinkage of models to better understand the evolution of the battery price.

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  • Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Jochem, Patrick, 2019. "Simulating vehicle fleet composition: A review of system dynamics models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:115:y:2019:i:c:s1364032119305751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109367
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    2. Gnann, T. & Speth, D. & Seddig, K. & Stich, M. & Schade, W. & Gómez Vilchez, J.J., 2022. "How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Blanco, Herib & Leaver, Jonathan & Dodds, Paul E. & Dickinson, Robert & García-Gusano, Diego & Iribarren, Diego & Lind, Arne & Wang, Changlong & Danebergs, Janis & Baumann, Martin, 2022. "A taxonomy of models for investigating hydrogen energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Solanke, Tirupati U. & Khatua, Pradeep K. & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Yong, Jia Ying & Tan, Kang Miao, 2021. "Control and management of a multilevel electric vehicles infrastructure integrated with distributed resources: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Florian Kellner & Bernhard Lienland & Sebastian Utz, 2021. "A multi‐criteria decision‐making approach for assembling optimal powertrain technology portfolios in low GHG emission environments," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1412-1429, December.
    6. Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Jochem, Patrick & Fichtner, Wolf, 2020. "Interlinking major markets to explore electric car uptake," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Gillian Harrison & Simon P. Shepherd & Haibo Chen, 2021. "Modelling Uptake Sensitivities of Connected and Automated Vehicle Technologies," International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), IGI Global, vol. 10(2), pages 88-106, April.
    8. Christian Thies & Christoph Hüls & Karsten Kieckhäfer & Jörg Wansart & Thomas S. Spengler, 2022. "Project portfolio planning under CO2 fleet emission restrictions in the automotive industry," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 937-951, June.
    9. Haizhen Wu & Weiguo Fan & Jianchang Lu, 2021. "Researching on the Sustainability of Transportation Industry Based on a Coupled Emergy and System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Qinghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Knüpfer, Kristina & Mäll, Martin & Esteban, Miguel & Shibayama, Tomoya, 2021. "Review of mixed-technology vehicle fleet evolution and representation in modelling studies: Policy contexts of Germany and Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Verônica Ghisolfi & Lóránt Antal Tavasszy & Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia & Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves & Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro, 2022. "Freight Transport Decarbonization: A Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-30, March.

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