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Growth of residential solar energy in Brazil: A system dynamics approach

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  • Marcuzzo, R.
  • Silberg, T.R.
  • Uriona-Maldonado, M.

Abstract

The adoption of solar photovoltaic energy (PV) among households has grown noticeably in the past decade given technological advancements and decreases in installation costs. Despite positive developments, several barriers limit the technology from diffusing rapidly through society. Many methods have been used to investigate how these barriers affect diffusion across Brazil, but often these barriers are investigated in an isolated matter, when in fact, they are interconnected components comprising a wider system. The objective of this study is to determine how payback time fluctuates according to various policy scenarios, how this result affects adoption rates, and ultimately, solar PV diffusion in the Brazilian household sector. A system dynamics model (SDM) was developed to assess diffusion across each of the 27 Brazilian States. The SDM included a combination of economic, social, and environmental variables, such as payback time, peer effect, and carbon credit price. The SDM serves to simulate different policy scenarios and their impacts on PV uptake, energy production, payback time and carbon credit accumulation in Brazil from 2012 to 2030. The SDM serves to simulate different policy scenarios and 27 their impacts on PV uptake, energy production, payback time and carbon credit accumulation 28 in Brazil from 2012 to 2030.

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  • Marcuzzo, R. & Silberg, T.R. & Uriona-Maldonado, M., 2025. "Growth of residential solar energy in Brazil: A system dynamics approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:215:y:2025:i:c:s1364032125002552
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115582
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