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Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland

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  • Shafiei, Ehsan
  • Davidsdottir, Brynhildur
  • Leaver, Jonathan
  • Stefansson, Hlynur
  • Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi

Abstract

This paper develops a system dynamics model of Iceland׳s energy sector (UniSyD_IS) that is based on the UniSyD_NZ model of New Zealand׳s energy economy. The model focuses on the energy supply sector with endogenous representation of road transport energy demand. Equilibrium interactions are performed across electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, and road transport sectors. Possible transition paths toward a low-carbon transport in Iceland are explored with implications for fuel demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated costs. The consumer sector simulates the long-term evolution of light and heavy-duty vehicles through a vehicle choice algorithm that accounts for social influences and consumer preferences. Through different scenarios, the influences of four fundamental driving factors are examined. The factors are oil price, carbon tax, fuel supply-push, and government incentives. The results show that changes in travel demand, vehicle technologies, fuel types, and efficiency improvements can support feasible transition paths to achieve sufficient reduction in GHG for both 4°C and 2°C climate scenarios of the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives study. Initial investment in supply infrastructure for alternative fuels will not only mitigate GHG emissions, but also could provide long-term economic benefits through fuel cost saving for consumers and reduced fuel import costs for government.

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  • Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2014. "Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-142.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:127-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.03.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Raffaele Salvucci & Stefan Petrović & Kenneth Karlsson & Markus Wråke & Tanu Priya Uteng & Olexandr Balyk, 2019. "Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Fazeli, Reza & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2018. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal incentives to promote electric vehicles in Iceland: Implications for government and consumer costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    4. Yang, Zaoli & Ahmad, Salman & Bernardi, Andrea & Shang, Wen-long & Xuan, Jin & Xu, Bing, 2023. "Evaluating alternative low carbon fuel technologies using a stakeholder participation-based q-rung orthopair linguistic multi-criteria framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    5. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2015. "Comparative analysis of hydrogen, biofuels and electricity transitional pathways to sustainable transport in a renewable-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 614-627.
    6. Watabe, Akihiro & Leaver, Jonathan & Ishida, Hiroyuki & Shafiei, Ehsan, 2019. "Impact of low emissions vehicles on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 227-242.
    7. Spittler, Nathalie & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Shafiei, Ehsan & Leaver, Jonathan & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Stefansson, Hlynur, 2020. "The role of geothermal resources in sustainable power system planning in Iceland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1081-1090.
    8. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2017. "Contestation, contingency, and justice in the Nordic low-carbon energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 569-582.
    9. Trop, P. & Goricanec, D., 2016. "Comparisons between energy carriers' productions for exploiting renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 155-161.
    10. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Fazeli, Reza & Gestsson, Marías Halldór & Leaver, Jonathan, 2019. "Simulation-based appraisal of tax-induced electro-mobility promotion in Iceland and prospects for energy-economic development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Oliveira, Gabriela D. & Roth, Richard & Dias, Luis C., 2019. "Diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles considering dynamic preferences," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 83-99.
    12. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    13. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.
    14. Verônica Ghisolfi & Lóránt Antal Tavasszy & Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia & Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves & Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro, 2022. "Freight Transport Decarbonization: A Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-30, March.
    15. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Álvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Jaramillo-Álvarez, Patricia, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of transport policies through energy system simulation: The case of the Medellin Metropolitan Area, Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-108.
    16. Mohammadreza Zolfagharian & Bob Walrave & A. Georges L. Romme & Rob Raven, 2020. "Toward the Dynamic Modeling of Transition Problems: The Case of Electric Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    17. Esteban Lopez-Arboleda & Alfonso T. Sarmiento & Laura M. Cardenas, 2021. "Systemic approach for integration of sustainability in evaluation of public policies for adoption of electric vehicles," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 399-417, August.
    18. Spittler, Nathalie & Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Juliusson, Egill, 2020. "Modelling geothermal resource utilization by incorporating resource dynamics, capacity expansion, and development costs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    19. Benvenutti, Lívia M. & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Campos, Lucila M.S., 2019. "The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 370-379.

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