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Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects

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  • Park, Sang Yong
  • Kim, Jong Wook
  • Lee, Duk Hee

Abstract

In order to cope with climate change, the development and deployment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs) is becoming more important. In this study, we developed a forecasting model for HFCVs based on the generalized Bass diffusion model and a simulation model using system dynamics. Through the developed model, we could forecast that the saturation of HFCVs in Korea can be moved up 12 years compared with the US. A sensitivity analysis on external variables such as price reduction rates of HFCVs and number of hydrogen refueling stations is also conducted. The results of this study can give insights on the effects of external variables on the market penetration of HFCVs, and the developed model can also be applied to other studies in analyzing the diffusion effects of HFCVs.

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  • Park, Sang Yong & Kim, Jong Wook & Lee, Duk Hee, 2011. "Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3307-3315, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3307-3315
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    Cited by:

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    15. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    16. González Palencia, Juan C. & Otsuka, Yuki & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of lightweight and electric-drive vehicle market penetration in the long-term and impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1444-1462.
    17. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
    18. Mohammadreza Zolfagharian & Bob Walrave & A. Georges L. Romme & Rob Raven, 2020. "Toward the Dynamic Modeling of Transition Problems: The Case of Electric Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Minutillo, M. & Forcina, A. & Jannelli, N. & Lubrano Lavadera, A., 2018. "Assessment of a sustainable energy chain designed for promoting the hydrogen mobility by means of fuel-cell powered bicycles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 200-210.
    20. Park, Changeun & Lim, Sesil & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Chul-Yong, 2022. "How much hydrogen should be supplied in the transportation market? Focusing on hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demand in South Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    21. Nelly S. Kolyan & Alexander E. Plesovskikh & Roman V. Gordeev, 2023. "Predictive Assessment of the Potential Electric Vehicle Market and the Effects of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Russia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(3), pages 497-521.
    22. Martin Zsifkovits & Markus Günther, 2015. "Simulating resistances in innovation diffusion over multiple generations: an agent-based approach for fuel-cell vehicles," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 23(2), pages 501-522, June.
    23. Lee, Duk Hee & Park, Sang Yong & Kim, Jong Wook & Lee, Seong Kon, 2013. "Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative technologies focusing on the green car," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 498-509.
    24. Danlu Xu & Zhoubin Liu & Jiahui Zhu & Qin Fang & Rui Shan, 2023. "Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, June.

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