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Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California

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  • Dong, Changgui
  • Sigrin, Benjamin
  • Brinkman, Gregory

Abstract

Residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the United States has experienced robust growth, and policy changes impacting the value of solar are likely to occur at the federal and state levels. To establish a credible baseline and evaluate impacts of potential new policies, this analysis employs multiple methods to forecast residential PV deployment in California, including a time-series forecasting model, a threshold heterogeneity diffusion model, a Bass diffusion model, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's dSolar model. As a baseline, the residential PV market in California is modeled to peak in the early 2020s, with a peak annual installation of 1.5–2GW across models. We then use the baseline results from the dSolar model and the threshold model to gauge the impact of the recent federal investment tax credit (ITC) extension, the newly approved California net energy metering (NEM) policy, and a hypothetical value-of-solar (VOS) compensation scheme. We find that the recent ITC extension may increase annual PV installations by 12%–18% (roughly 500MW, MW) for the California residential sector in 2019–2020. The new NEM policy only has a negligible effect in California due to the relatively small new charges (<100MW in 2019–2020). Furthermore, impacts of the VOS compensation scheme ($0.12 per kilowatt-hour) are larger, reducing annual PV adoption by 32% (or 900–1300MW) in 2019–2020.

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  • Dong, Changgui & Sigrin, Benjamin & Brinkman, Gregory, 2017. "Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 251-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:117:y:2017:i:c:p:251-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.021
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    7. Costa, Vinicius Braga Ferreira da & Bonatto, Benedito Donizeti, 2023. "Cutting-edge public policy proposal to maximize the long-term benefits of distributed energy resources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 357-372.
    8. Baschieri, Davide & Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea, 2020. "Comprehensive Financial Modeling of Solar PV Systems," MPRA Paper 103886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tibebu, Tiruwork B. & Hittinger, Eric & Miao, Qing & Williams, Eric, 2022. "Roles of diffusion patterns, technological progress, and environmental benefits in determining optimal renewable subsidies in the US," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    10. Collier, Samuel H.C. & House, Jo I. & Connor, Peter M. & Harris, Richard, 2023. "Distributed local energy: Assessing the determinants of domestic-scale solar photovoltaic uptake at the local level across England and Wales," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Costa, Vinicius B.F. & Capaz, Rafael S. & Silva, Patrícia F. & Doyle, Gabriel & Aquila, Giancarlo & Coelho, Éden O. & de Lorenci, Eliane & Pereira, Lígia C. & Maciel, Letícia B. & Balestrassi, Pedro P, 2022. "Socioeconomic and environmental consequences of a new law for regulating distributed generation in Brazil: A holistic assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    12. Wichsinee Wibulpolprasert & Umnouy Ponsukcharoen & Siripha Junlakarn & Sopitsuda Tongsopit, 2021. "Preliminarily Screening Geographical Hotspots for New Rooftop PV Installation: A Case Study in Thailand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, June.
    13. Kurdgelashvili, Lado & Shih, Cheng-Hao & Yang, Fan & Garg, Mehul, 2019. "An empirical analysis of county-level residential PV adoption in California," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 321-333.
    14. Ramshani, Mohammad & Li, Xueping & Khojandi, Anahita & Omitaomu, Olufemi, 2020. "An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    15. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea & Baschieri, Davide, 2022. "Impact of financing and payout policy on the economic profitability of solar photovoltaic plants," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    16. Kulmer, Veronika & Seebauer, Sebastian & Hinterreither, Helene & Kortschak, Dominik & Theurl, Michaela C. & Haas, Willi, 2022. "Transforming the s-shape: Identifying and explaining turning points in market diffusion curves of low-carbon technologies in Austria," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    17. Danlu Xu & Zhoubin Liu & Jiahui Zhu & Qin Fang & Rui Shan, 2023. "Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, June.

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