IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormksc/v1y1982i1p57-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance

Author

Listed:
  • David C. Schmittlein

    (Department of Marketing, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Vijay Mahajan

    (Department of Marketing, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

A maximum likelihood approach is proposed for estimating an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance originally considered by Bass (Bass, F. M. 1969. A new product growth model for consumer durables. (January) 215–227.). The suggested approach allows: (1) computation of approximate standard errors for the diffusion model parameters, and (2) determination of the required sample size for forecasting the adoption level to any desired degree of accuracy. Using histograms from eight different product innovations, the maximum likelihood estimates are shown to outperform estimates from a model calibrated using ordinary least squares, in terms of both goodness of fit measures and one-step ahead forecasts. However, these advantages are not obtained without cost. The coefficients of innovation and imitation are easily interpreted in terms of the expected adoption pattern, but individual adoption times must be assumed to represent independent draws from this distribution. In addition, instead of using standard linear regression, another (simple) program must be employed to estimate the model. Thus, tradeoffs between the maximum likelihood and least squares approaches are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • David C. Schmittlein & Vijay Mahajan, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 57-78.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:1:y:1982:i:1:p:57-78
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1.1.57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1.1.57
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mksc.1.1.57?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:1:y:1982:i:1:p:57-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Matthew Walls (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.