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Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables

Author

Listed:
  • Roger M. Heeler

    (York University)

  • Thomas P. Hustad

    (Indiana University)

Abstract

A popular model of new product diffusion is applied in an international setting. Several limitations on its use are noted: instability with limited data, environmental differences, and systematic under reporting of estimated time to attain peak level of first purchase sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger M. Heeler & Thomas P. Hustad, 1980. "Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(10), pages 1007-1020, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:26:y:1980:i:10:p:1007-1020
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.26.10.1007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Namwoon Kim & Dae Ryun Chang & Allan D. Shocker, 2000. "Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for A Growing Information Technology Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(4), pages 496-512, April.
    2. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:59:y:2008:i:8:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602457 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Urban, Glen L. & Roberts, John H. & Hauser, John R., 1986. "Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles : models and implementation," Working papers 1820-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Debabrata Talukdar & K. Sudhir & Andrew Ainslie, 2002. "Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 97-114, February.
    5. Scott A. Shane & Karl T. Ulrich, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Technological Innovation, Product Development, and Entrepreneurship in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 133-144, February.
    6. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
    7. John H. Roberts & Charles J. Nelson & Pamela D. Morrison, 2005. "A Prelaunch Diffusion Model for Evaluating Market Defense Strategies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 150-164, August.
    8. Dong, Changgui & Sigrin, Benjamin & Brinkman, Gregory, 2017. "Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 251-265.
    9. Crompton, Paul, 2001. "The diffusion of new steelmaking technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 87-95, June.
    10. repec:eee:ijrema:v:31:y:2014:i:4:p:356-367 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jacob Goldenberg & Oded Lowengart & Daniel Shapira, 2009. "Zooming In: Self-Emergence of Movements in New Product Growth," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 274-292, 03-04.
    12. Hlavinka, Alexander N. & Mjelde, James W. & Dharmasena, Senarath & Holland, Christine, 2016. "Forecasting the adoption of residential ductless heat pumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 60-67.
    13. Gerard J. Tellis & Stefan Stremersch & Eden Yin, 2003. "The International Takeoff of New Products: The Role of Economics, Culture, and Country Innovativeness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 188-208, October.
    14. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    15. Christos Michalakelis & Georgia Dede & Dimitris Varoutas & Thomas Sphicopoulos, 2010. "Estimating diffusion and price elasticity with application to telecommunications," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 221-242, October.
    16. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
    17. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
    18. Lee, Hakyeon & Kim, Sang Gook & Park, Hyun-woo & Kang, Pilsung, 2014. "Pre-launch new product demand forecasting using the Bass model: A statistical and machine learning-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 49-64.
    19. Kim, Namwoon & Srivastava, Rajendra K., 2007. "Modeling cross-price effects on inter-category dynamics: The case of three computing platforms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 290-301, June.
    20. Stremersch, S. & Lemmens, A., 2008. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-026-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    21. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:1378-:d:107066 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.

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