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A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products

  • John A. Norton

    (Colgate Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, The University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22906-6550)

  • Frank M. Bass

    (School of Management, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas)

Registered author(s):

    This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (Bass, F. M. 1969. A new-product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci. 15(January) 215--227.) diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.9.1069
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    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 33 (1987)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 1069-1086

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:9:p:1069-1086
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