IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v33y1987i9p1069-1086.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products

Author

Listed:
  • John A. Norton

    (Colgate Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, The University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22906-6550)

  • Frank M. Bass

    (School of Management, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas)

Abstract

This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (Bass, F. M. 1969. A new-product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci. 15(January) 215--227.) diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:9:p:1069-1086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.9.1069
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    marketing; new products;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:9:p:1069-1086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.