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A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products


  • John A. Norton

    (Colgate Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, The University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22906-6550)

  • Frank M. Bass

    (School of Management, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas)


This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (Bass, F. M. 1969. A new-product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci. 15(January) 215--227.) diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:9:p:1069-1086

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    marketing; new products;


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