IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i12p2232-d239018.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review

Author

Listed:
  • Raffaele Salvucci

    (DTU Management, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)

  • Stefan Petrović

    (DTU Management, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)

  • Kenneth Karlsson

    (DTU Management, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)

  • Markus Wråke

    (Energiforsk AB, Swedish Energy Research Centre, Olof Palmes gata 31, 101 53 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Tanu Priya Uteng

    (Institute of Transport Economics, Norwegian Centre for Transport Research (TØI), Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway)

  • Olexandr Balyk

    (DTU Management, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet, Building 424, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)

Abstract

Experiencing the highest growth in emissions since 1990 and relying mainly on oil, transport is considered the most complicated sector to decarbonize. Lately, the Nordic countries have shown remarkable success in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in the power and heat sector. However, when it comes to transportation, the greatest source of Nordic GHG emissions, stronger measures are needed. Relying on a rich and diversified portfolio of renewable sources and expertise, the Nordic countries could benefit from a common mitigation strategy by encompassing a larger variety of solutions and potential synergies. This article reviews studies addressing integrated energy and transport scenario analysis for the Nordic region as a whole. The studies targeted are those applying energy system models, given their extensive adoption in supporting scenario analysis. Most notable of these studies is the “Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016” to which a special focus is dedicated. The article reviews the methodological choices and the research content of the selected literature. Challenges/limitations are identified in light of recent transport research, and categorized as: “transport behavior”, “breakthrough technologies”, “domestic energy resources” and “geographical aggregation and system boundaries”. Lastly, a list of suggestions to tackle the identified gaps is provided based on the existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaele Salvucci & Stefan Petrović & Kenneth Karlsson & Markus Wråke & Tanu Priya Uteng & Olexandr Balyk, 2019. "Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:12:p:2232-:d:239018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/12/2232/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/12/2232/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petrović, Stefan N. & Karlsson, Kenneth B., 2016. "Residential heat pumps in the future Danish energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 787-797.
    2. Cayla, Jean-Michel & Maïzi, Nadia, 2015. "Integrating household behavior and heterogeneity into the TIMES-Households model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 56-67.
    3. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    4. Münster, Marie & Morthorst, Poul Erik & Larsen, Helge V. & Bregnbæk, Lars & Werling, Jesper & Lindboe, Hans Henrik & Ravn, Hans, 2012. "The role of district heating in the future Danish energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 47-55.
    5. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    6. Taljegard, M. & Göransson, L. & Odenberger, M. & Johnsson, F., 2019. "Impacts of electric vehicles on the electricity generation portfolio – A Scandinavian-German case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1637-1650.
    7. Fulton, Lew & Cazzola, Pierpaolo & Cuenot, François, 2009. "IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) and its use in the ETP 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3758-3768, October.
    8. Rootzén, Johan & Johnsson, Filip, 2015. "CO2 emissions abatement in the Nordic carbon-intensive industry – An end-game in sight?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 715-730.
    9. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2017. "Contestation, contingency, and justice in the Nordic low-carbon energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 569-582.
    10. Cuenot, Francois & Fulton, Lew & Staub, John, 2012. "The prospect for modal shifts in passenger transport worldwide and impacts on energy use and CO2," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 98-106.
    11. Petter NÆss & Ole Jensen, 2004. "Urban structure matters, even in a small town," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 35-57.
    12. Graabak, Ingeborg & Wu, Qiuwei & Warland, Leif & Liu, Zhaoxi, 2016. "Optimal planning of the Nordic transmission system with 100% electric vehicle penetration of passenger cars by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 648-660.
    13. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
    14. Brynolf, Selma & Taljegard, Maria & Grahn, Maria & Hansson, Julia, 2018. "Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1887-1905.
    15. Itf, 2018. "Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Reviewing the Impact of Nationally Determined Contributions," International Transport Forum Policy Papers 50, OECD Publishing.
    16. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    17. Juul, Nina & Meibom, Peter, 2012. "Road transport and power system scenarios for Northern Europe in 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 573-582.
    18. Riccardo Iacobucci & Benjamin McLellan & Tetsuo Tezuka, 2018. "The Synergies of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles with Renewable Energy in a Virtual Power Plant and Microgrid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    19. Simoes, Sofia & Nijs, Wouter & Ruiz, Pablo & Sgobbi, Alessandra & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "Comparing policy routes for low-carbon power technology deployment in EU – an energy system analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 353-365.
    20. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU energy transition to a low carbon system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 323-340.
    21. Zhaoxi Liu & Qiuwei Wu & Arne Hejde Nielsen & Yun Wang, 2014. "Day-Ahead Energy Planning with 100% Electric Vehicle Penetration in the Nordic Region by 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, March.
    22. Andreas Goldmann & Waldemar Sauter & Marcel Oettinger & Tim Kluge & Uwe Schröder & Joerg R. Seume & Jens Friedrichs & Friedrich Dinkelacker, 2018. "A Study on Electrofuels in Aviation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, February.
    23. Lopion, Peter & Markewitz, Peter & Robinius, Martin & Stolten, Detlef, 2018. "A review of current challenges and trends in energy systems modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 156-166.
    24. Oshiro, Ken & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 215-225.
    25. Krumdieck, Susan & Page, Shannon & Dantas, André, 2010. "Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 306-322, June.
    26. Pye, Steve & Daly, Hannah, 2015. "Modelling sustainable urban travel in a whole systems energy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 97-107.
    27. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2014. "Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-142.
    28. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Noel, Lance & Kester, Johannes & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo, 2018. "Reviewing Nordic transport challenges and climate policy priorities: Expert perceptions of decarbonisation in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 532-542.
    29. Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Reaching carbon neutral transport sector in Denmark – Evidence from the incorporation of modal shift into the TIMES energy system modeling framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 571-583.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pedinotti-Castelle, Marianne & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Amor, Ben, 2022. "Freight transport modal shifts in a TIMES energy model: Impacts of endogenous and exogenous modeling choice," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    2. Ana Luiza Carvalho Ferrer & Antonio Márcio Tavares Thomé, 2023. "Carbon Emissions in Transportation: A Synthesis Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Jacek Wolak & Aleksander Iwaszczuk, 2021. "Turkmenistan’s Gas Sector Development Scenarios Based on Econometric and SWOT Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Michel Noussan & Francesco Neirotti, 2020. "Cross-Country Comparison of Hourly Electricity Mixes for EV Charging Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salvucci, Raffaele & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2019. "The role of modal shift in decarbonising the Scandinavian transport sector: Applying substitution elasticities in TIMES-Nordic," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2020. "Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    4. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    6. Bramstoft, Rasmus & Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2020. "Modelling of renewable gas and renewable liquid fuels in future integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    7. Morgenthaler, Simon & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm & Witthaut, Dirk, 2020. "Optimal system layout and locations for fully renewable high temperature co-electrolysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Andreas Andreou & Panagiotis Fragkos & Theofano Fotiou & Faidra Filippidou, 2022. "Assessing Lifestyle Transformations and Their Systemic Effects in Energy-System and Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Current Methods and Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Naoya Nagano & Rémi Delage & Toshihiko Nakata, 2021. "Optimal Design and Analysis of Sector-Coupled Energy System in Northeast Japan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-26, May.
    11. Mikulčić, Hrvoje & Ridjan Skov, Iva & Dominković, Dominik Franjo & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Manan, Zainuddin Abdul & Tan, Raymond & Duić, Neven & Hidayah Mohamad, Siti Nur & Wang, Xuebin, 2019. "Flexible Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies in future energy systems and the utilization pathways of captured CO2," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    12. David Huckebrink & Valentin Bertsch, 2021. "Integrating Behavioural Aspects in Energy System Modelling—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-26, July.
    13. Ortega, Margarita & Río, Pablo del & Ruiz, Pablo & Nijs, Wouter & Politis, Savvas, 2020. "Analysing the influence of trade, technology learning and policy on the employment prospects of wind and solar energy deployment: The EU case," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Ramea, Kalai & Bunch, David S. & Yang, Christopher & Yeh, Sonia & Ogden, Joan M., 2018. "Integration of behavioral effects from vehicle choice models into long-term energy systems optimization models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 663-676.
    15. Charlotte Senkpiel & Audrey Dobbins & Christina Kockel & Jan Steinbach & Ulrich Fahl & Farina Wille & Joachim Globisch & Sandra Wassermann & Bert Droste-Franke & Wolfgang Hauser & Claudia Hofer & Lars, 2020. "Integrating Methods and Empirical Findings from Social and Behavioural Sciences into Energy System Models—Motivation and Possible Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-30, September.
    16. Tom Brown & Mirko Schäfer & Martin Greiner, 2019. "Sectoral Interactions as Carbon Dioxide Emissions Approach Zero in a Highly-Renewable European Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Brown, T. & Schlachtberger, D. & Kies, A. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2018. "Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 720-739.
    18. Li, Pei-Hao & Keppo, Ilkka & Strachan, Neil, 2018. "Incorporating homeowners' preferences of heating technologies in the UK TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 716-727.
    19. Korberg, A.D. & Brynolf, S. & Grahn, M. & Skov, I.R., 2021. "Techno-economic assessment of advanced fuels and propulsion systems in future fossil-free ships," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    20. Wolff, Michael & Becker, Tristan & Walther, Grit, 2023. "Long-term design and analysis of renewable fuel supply chains – An integrated approach considering seasonal resource availability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 745-762.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:12:p:2232-:d:239018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.