From gas to gigawatts: Unpacking the drivers of electric vehicle adoption growth across 336 Chinese cities

Electric Vehicles (EVs), including Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), offer a key opportunity for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. Understanding the drivers of EV adoption will help develop targeted EV promotion strategies. However, most existing studies focus on Europe and North America, with limited research on China, the world's largest market for both fuel vehicles and EVs. Using compulsory vehicle insurance data, this study investigates the factors driving EV adoption growth across 336 Chinese cities, particularly focusing on their differences between BEVs/PHEVs and regional variations in these effects. In China, BEV adoption growth is concentrated in urbanised, infrastructure-rich east and southeast areas, while PHEV adoption is surging in the less urbanised, harsher-climate northwest and north-central regions. The global regression results identified differing drivers of BEV/PHEV adoption growth. BEV adoption growth is associated only with environment factors, likely due to their impact on the BEV range and thus potential buyers' range anxiety. Conversely, PHEV adoption growth is driven by policy-related factors, which may be due to PHEVs are economical and flexible range option and are less dependent on charging facilities. MGWR results show demographic factors and slope have spatially consistent effects on EV adoption, whereas energy price, temperature, income, and charging facility exhibit regionally varying impacts and even different correlation directions across regions. These findings highlight the need for tailored EV policies for BEVs/PHEVs and specific regions to accelerate transportation electrification, optimise investments, and support carbon neutrality