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Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Author

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  • Riikka Siljander

    (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Ministry of Environment)

  • Tommi Ekholm

    (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Aalto University)

Abstract

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Riikka Siljander & Tommi Ekholm, 2018. "Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 783-802, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s11027-017-9759-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9759-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    2. Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Marcus Lindner & Pieter J. Verkerk & Katja Gunia & Paola Deda & Roman Michalak & Giacomo Grassi, 2013. "First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 792-796, September.
    3. Vass, Miriam Münnich & Elofsson, Katarina, 2016. "Is forest carbon sequestration at the expense of bioenergy and forest products cost-efficient in EU climate policy to 2050?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 82-105.
    4. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    5. Ekholm, Tommi, 2016. "Optimal forest rotation age under efficient climate change mitigation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-68.
    6. L. Gustavsson & R. Madlener & H.-F. Hoen & G. Jungmeier & T. Karjalainen & S. KlÖhn & K. Mahapatra & J. Pohjola & B. Solberg & H. Spelter, 2006. "The Role of Wood Material for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 1097-1127, September.
    7. Jonathan Haskett & Bernhard Schlamadinger & Sandra Brown, 2010. "Land-based carbon storage and the European union emissions trading scheme: the science underlying the policy," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-136, February.
    8. Kim Pingoud & Tommi Ekholm & Ilkka Savolainen, 2012. "Global warming potential factors and warming payback time as climate indicators of forest biomass use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 369-386, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tommi Ekholm, 2019. "Optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk," Papers 1912.00269, arXiv.org.
    2. Ekholm, Tommi, 2020. "Optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Juho Roponen & Ahti Salo, 2024. "A probabilistic cross‐impact methodology for explorative scenario analysis," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    4. Satu Lipiäinen & Esa Vakkilainen, 2021. "Role of the Finnish forest industry in mitigating global change: energy use and greenhouse gas emissions towards 2035," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-19, February.

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